In 2026, Europe reaches a demographic turning point. According to Eurostat projections, the EU’s population is expected to peak at 453 million this year before beginning a gradual decline.1 This shift comes as the proportion of Europeans aged 80 and above is projected to more than double by the end of the century, rising from 6% to 15%.2
For cancer policy, the implications are significant. Age remains the most important risk factor for developing cancer,3 meaning Europe faces a future with greater caseloads and higher mortality levels as its population grows older. The European Cancer Information System projects that new cancer cases in the EU will increase by 21% by 2040 compared to 2020, driven largely by population ageing.4
Europe is not the first advanced economy to confront this challenge. Japan’s population peaked in the late 2000s,5 and today the country has the oldest population in the world, with more than one in ten people aged over 80.6 In September 2025, Japan recorded 99,763 centenarians, marking the fifty-fifth consecutive annual rise.7 How did the land of the rising sun achieve the world’s highest life expectancy, and what lessons can be learned about Europe’s own demographic transition?
Model for cancer care
The standard of care and level of positive treatment outcomes in Japan are among the best in the world. Japan has higher five-year cancer survival rates than any EU27 nation for breast and lung cancer.8 Gastric cancer survival rates in Japan are often more than double European national averages.9
Japan is also a leader in cancer screening, including for often-underserved cancer types. Japan has had a nationwide gastric cancer screening programme in place since 2005.10 By contrast, the EU’s TOGAS programme is still working toward recommendations on establishing gastric screening programmes across the continent.11
Since 2000, the proportion of GDP Japan spends on health has increased by over 60%.12 European policymakers must anticipate similar budgetary pressures as the burden of caring for an ageing population grows.
Japan is also a pioneer in developing and maintaining national cancer control plans. Established in 1984, it has since updated its first nationwide cancer control plan regularly to promote cancer research and disseminate high-quality cancer medical services. Under Japanese law, the national strategy must be reviewed every five years, ensuring the country keeps pace with progress in cancer policy.13
In the EU, the Beating Cancer Plan has begun to deliver results. However, in the same year that the EU population reaches its peak, health appears to have slipped off the agenda for 2026. 14 The mandate of the EU Beating Cancer Plan ends in 2027. If Europe is to match Japan’s example, it must ensure that cancer control strategies are maintained and updated to address the increasing burden of an ageing society.
Japanese approach to innovation
Daiichi Sankyo, one of Japan’s largest pharmaceutical companies, seeks to drive innovation to the benefit of society and patients - primarily focusing on non-communicable diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular conditions, where age is the most significant risk factor.
A key focus of this research is a type of therapy known as Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs). These work by combining two components: an antibody that binds to specific proteins on the surface of cancer cells and a potent drug payload. ADCs are designed to target cancer cells directly with the aim of minimizing damage to healthy tissue.
By capitalising on ADCs and other emerging therapies, such as mRNA and gene therapies, a future in which traditional chemotherapies become less central is increasingly possible. This could give rise to highly personalised treatments with the potential to improve patient outcomes and standards of care.
This matters particularly for older patients. Traditional chemotherapy can be difficult for elderly cancer patients to tolerate, as its side effects, including fatigue, nausea, and weakened immunity, can be more severe in those with less physical resilience. Therapies that target tumours more precisely may offer effective treatment with fewer of these burdens.
Looking ahead
As Europe confronts its demographic transition, Japan’s experience offers a useful reference point. Sustained investment in prevention, screening, and innovative treatments has allowed Japan to maintain high standards of cancer care even as its population has grown steadily older.
For European policymakers, the peaking of the EU’s population should prompt greater focus on health and cancer policy. With appropriate strategies, Europe can ensure that its ageing citizens receive the care they need.
The coverage of this topic has been made possible with the support of Daiichi Sankyo, while all research and writing were conducted by The Brussels Times.
Sources:
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_projections_in_the_EU
- https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/21/over-65-and-rising-is-the-eu-facing-a-demographic-crisis
- https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/age
- https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/european-cancer-information-system-21-increase-new-cancer-cases-2040-2022-03-16_en
- https://epc2014.eaps.nl/papers/140662
- https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/09/elderly-oldest-population-world-japan/
- https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02539/
- https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cancer-survival-rates-by-country
- https://www.dkfz.de/en/news/press-releases/detail/largest-worldwide-study-on-cancer-survival-rates-reveals-dramatic-differences-germany-among-the-leading-countries-worldwide
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cas.15545
- https://health.ec.europa.eu/non-communicable-diseases/cancer/europes-beating-cancer-plan-eu4health-financed-projects/projects/togas_en
- https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS?locations=JP
- https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23863577/
- https://www.euractiv.com/news/health-disappeared-parliament-on-eus-2026-work-programme/
