Belgium’s 2023 public deficit is €6.2 billion lower than planned in the initial budget, according to a report submitted to the federal government on Thursday by the Monitoring Committee.
The report also shows that the government is not in a position to make any changes to its budget.
The deficit is 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), or €27.4 billion, instead of the expected 5.9%. At the federal level, the improvement over the forecast amounts to €3.2 billion or 0.6% of GDP.
This improvement is attributed to lower inflation and falling energy prices, which have decreased in the amounts allocated to the social tariff.
The outlook remains worrying, however. With no change in policy, the deficit of the Belgian entities could reach €41.6 billion in 2028 or 6.1% of GDP. The public debt, estimated this year at 106.4% of GDP, could represent 117.6% of GDP in 5 years.
These forecasts are published as the return to European budgetary discipline is announced for next year. This entails rules based on the principle of a public deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP and a debt no higher than 60% of GDP. According to a proposal by the European Commission, not yet approved, Belgium could end up in the category of high-risk countries.
The report by a committee made up of senior officials from the administrations that oversee Belgium's budget marks the start of work on the budget.
On Friday, the federal government will have an initial meeting where it will receive the heads of the National Bank, the Planning Commission, Debt Agency and Monitoring Committee. On Saturday, bilaterals are scheduled ahead of the first day of the conclave on Sunday.
Queried on Thursday afternoon in the Chamber, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said he saw the new figures as confirmation of the government’s “seriousness” without, however, convincing the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliance (N-VA) opposition, which has warned him about the consequences to be expected from the European Commission.
The Secretary of State for the Budget, Alexia Bertrand, commented that while the reduction of the deficit “is not nothing,” one must be careful not to crow about it.
