BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union has not been swept under the carpet. If anything, it is gaining momentum, as Brussels plans in earnest for a future with Kyiv as a member. It is now more about 'how?', rather than 'if'.
During the early days of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, many of the invaded nation’s well-meaning supporters insisted that the EU should grant Kyiv immediate membership.
To anyone that knows how Brussels actually works, this was never an option. The very best Ukraine could hope for was candidate status and political backing to join the waiting room of prospective EU members.
That best case scenario panned out and now Kyiv hopes to avoid being left in membership-seeking limbo. There is good news on that front too.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
Ukraine was granted candidate status in June 2022, just five months after Russia invaded. The European Commission recommended it, the Parliament supported it and the Council allowed it.
Kyiv's next step is actually starting talks with Brussels on the various negotiating chapters that need to be opened and closed before membership can be granted. These include everything governed by EU law and which Ukraine needs to align with.
This kickoff could happen by the end of 2023, according to officials and diplomats contacted by Behind the Scenes.
Ask Albania and North Macedonia whether this is an important step or not. They were granted candidate status in 2014 and the start of talks was delayed until 12 months ago, after first Greece and then Bulgaria refused to lift their vetoes.
Kicking off negotiations with Ukraine will be a massive step and it is appearing more and more likely that the official green light will be granted at the final European Council summit of 2023 in December.
That will be a political decision, which could be hijacked as part of other talks. Hungary, in particular, might yet be the frustrating antagonist once again. Time will tell. But the technical points of the Ukraine issue are already being worked out regardless.
Officials are trying to figure out what the EU’s actual ‘absorption capacity’ is, because as things stand, the Union would not be able to accommodate a country of Ukraine’s size without serious changes to the rules.
It is about more than just farming subsidies. Most calculations figure that the existing 27 members would all become net contributors to the EU budget, paying in more than they get out, with Ukraine the only net recipient.
No country is going to vote for that.
So budgets are where Brussels has to concentrate its firepower, figuring out how the Union’s finances would actually work with Ukraine as a member, either rewriting the rules or perhaps, more radically, creating a separate budget just for Kyiv.
This will require creativity. That is already on display as part of the EU’s plan to support Ukraine with €50bn in grants and loans, the payment of which will be linked to the reform process, much like the bloc’s own covid recovery fund.
More than just Kyiv
Making the situation more complex still is the fact that Ukraine is unlikely to join alone. Other candidates like Moldova, Montenegro and the aforementioned Albania and North Macedonia are knocking on the door as well.
Folding all of these new countries into the existing architecture is simply untenable. Decisions that require unanimous voting are already extremely difficult to pull off, so growing the club to 30, maybe even 35 members simply does not work.
Scrapping unanimous voting requires unanimous agreement. Smaller countries, already peeved at having their interests sidelined by larger, wealthier nations, see vetoes as a safety net. It is a Herculean task for the diplomats leading this effort.
Brussels officials are also trying to figure out how to get all of this done without resorting to the dreaded treaty change, which could spur more vetoes and referenda in some countries.
There is no more sure-fire way to delay enlargement than to open the treaty change Pandora’s Box, because there is no realistic scenario in which that goes at all smoothly.
Could the EU offer Ukraine and other well-performing candidates a lite version of membership? Something like Spotify but you have to listen to a few ads now and then, plus you cannot use the app on your phone.
If the EU’s legal minds can square that kind of thinking with the rules already spelled out in the treaty then it could very well be a viable option. Many governments are worried about another ‘big bang’ enlargement when 10 countries joined all at once.
Phasing Ukraine and others into the Union could make the sell much easier. But then again, it would open up another, perhaps more difficult, question. If countries can half-join, can they half-leave?
Hungary and Poland give off the vibe of countries that would be happier with lite membership. Most of the cash, none of the responsibilities like solidarity on migration policy or energy sanctions.
Public sentiment is a different issue and would likely frustrate attempts to water down EU ties. People have seen the impact of Brexit and no one is looking to have what they are having.
This process will take a long time but the planning needs to be done now if it is to pan out. Behind the scenes, that work is gradually being ramped up.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
