BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
Hungary continues to drag down European Union action on several fronts. Calls to suspend Viktor Orban’s voting rights have picked up again but you can absolutely rule that out as a solution to this problem.
Brussels’ efforts to agree on a new EU budget and continue support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion risk failing because Viktor Orban’s government is unwilling to sign off on a deal.
This spat is old news: the European Commission froze Hungary’s billions of euros in pandemic recovery funding until the government fulfils more than 20 “super-milestones” linked to rule of law breaches.
Orban cannot play ball because he has his relationship with Moscow and patrons at home to keep happy. So instead he is deploying his veto. There is not much other countries can do about it.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
First, let’s clear something up: you cannot forcibly remove an EU member country from the Union. As we saw with Brexit, voluntarily leaving is hard enough. Kicking someone out is just not feasible.
Second, the chances of suspending Hungary’s voting rights and negating the threat of the dreaded veto are also slim. Optimists have claimed that with a change of government in Poland, Orban is susceptible to this gambit. Sadly, they are mistaken.
Under the infamous Article 7 of the EU treaty, a member state’s voting rights can be suspended by unanimous vote. That has not happened because Warsaw has stood by Budapest’s side, partly out of fear Article 7 could also be used against Poland.
Mateusz Morawiecki might be on his way out and Donald Tusk looks likelier by the day to take the reins as prime minister but that does not mean Orban is on the precipice.
Tusk, remember, was and is high up in the ranks of the EPP and did little to expel the Hungarian’s Fidesz party when in charge. He was also all too happy to accommodate Orban when he was Council president.
Maybe Poland’s support for Hungary will not be as overt as it has been but the idea that Tusk will suddenly look to vanquish Orban is a far-fetched one.
There is also the simple fact that it is not just Poland preventing the Council from unanimously clipping Hungary’s wings. Slovakia has changed government and now has long-time Orban-ally Robert Fico in charge. Others like Czechia and Austria can also be counted on to defend their neighbour behind closed doors.
Italy too is now led by the far-right’s Giorgia Meloni. She has done an admittedly impressive job in pulling the curtain in front of her party’s more radical ideas but the leopard has not changed its spots. Meloni would not allow Orban to be ejected.
The Netherlands’ also just opted for Geert Wilders’ far-right freedom party in Wednesday’s elections. A quarter of Dutch voters decided in favour of a political party that hates immigrants, wants to leave the EU and believes climate change is fake.
Although Wilders will struggle to find enough support to build a government, whoever takes over in The Hague after probably months and months of negotiations will have to reflect the views of a quarter of voters.
Orban made a big deal about being the first leader to congratulate Wilders on his victory, so it is not too much of a stretch to suggest that a future Dutch Netherlands will lobby against any meaningful action against Hungary in the Council.
Thirdly and lastly, the EU’s fundamental laws are not going to change anytime soon, so unanimous voting is not going anywgere soon. MEPs made a big deal this week out of the fact that they backed an ambitious plan to reform the treaty and get rid of things like vetoes.
Credit where credit is due: the European Parliament has to ask for something in order to get it. Lawmakers have put down on paper what they want from a reformed EU and now it is up to the Council to consider those changes.
Behind the Scenes predicts that this period of Council reflection will take about five minutes before some official tosses the proposal in the bin. Member states do not want change, not this kind of change anyway.
Forget ‘turkeys voting for Christmas’, this would be ‘convicted murderers voting for the death penalty’ level of self-sabotage.
So the EU will have to keep soldiering on and making deals with Orban in return for his oh-so-gracious support on important issues. We got a taste of that this week when the Commission approved Hungary's updated funding request.
That doesn't mean Orban is going to get paid just yet but it is easy to see that the ground is being prepared for it by Brussels.
It is never nice to see corrupt bullies get away with it but that, unfortunately, is just a part of life.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
