The pension risk rate of pensioners is expected to decrease by 2060 in Belgium. This is the main indication of the annual report of the Research Committee on Aging (CEV), published on Wednesday.
With more than 8% in 2015, the pensioners’ risk of poverty rate is expected to fall below 6% in 2060, with an acceleration of the decline from 2030, according to the VEC outlook.
The projected decline in the risk of poverty is explained initially by a revaluation of social benefits. The increase in minimums and the GRAPA (Old Age Income Guarantee) have already contributed to this decrease, which has been underway since 2010. Then, from 2030, the decline will be explained by the increase in the participation rate of women. Those who do not have a career or only have very short careers will be fewer and fewer. More and more women will therefore have a higher pension and will emerge from the risk of poverty, despite an increase in minimums lower than the increase in the poverty line.
By 2060, the budgetary cost of pensions is expected to mobilise 12.5% of GDP against 10.5% in 2016, according to the CEV, which is however a decrease of 0.1% compared to the prospects established last year. According to the Minister of Pensions, Daniel Bacquelaine, this difference is explained by the inclusion in the report of the taking into account of the periods of studies in the calculation of the pension.
This reform is currently blocked by a procedure in conflict of interest, introduced by the parliament of the COCOF (French Community Commission). The consultation meeting held on Tuesday did not yield anything, according to the minister. The matter must now be examined by the Senate and then by the Consultation Committee. However, Mr Bacquelaine hoped for a vote in the House in October for a coming into force on November 1.