Brexit: Johnson’s agreement will cost the UK economy £70 billion by 2029, research shows
Wednesday, 30 October 2019
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal deal will cost the British economy £70 billion by 2029, newly released research from an independent think tank shows.
“In the long run, the UK economy would be 3.5% smaller under the new deal compared to continued EU membership,” the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims in a new study.
“As a result of leaving the EU customs union and single market, UK-EU goods trade is assumed to be lower by 40% and UK-EU services trade is [assumed to be] lower by 60%, relative to continued EU membership,” the article outlines.
NIESR also estimates that, via Johnson’s current withdrawal deal, foreign direct investment in the UK will decrease by over 20% in the years following the end of a transition period in 2021.
The institute recognises, however, that its economic forecasts are made in the context of “considerable economic and political uncertainties.” Much of the economic impact of withdrawal will depend on the nature of trade relations between the UK and the EU after Brexit.
The UK government has said that it is considering a “more ambitious” trade deal with the EU than the NIESR has accounted for.
However, the opposition parties see this research as further evidence that Johnson’s plan will cause significant damage to the UK economy.
“No agreement will be as good as the one we have as a member of the EU,” said Liberal Democrats’ Tom Brake, reports Belga news agency.