The G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US, together with the High Representative of the EU, issued a joint statement on Sunday expressing their deep concern at the heightened tensions in the Middle East.
They urged all involved parties not to perpetuate the destructive cycle of retaliatory violence, calling on all sides to engage constructively towards de-escalation. “No country or nation stands to gain from a further escalation in the Middle East.”
Tensions increased dramatically after the deadly rocket attack by Hezbollah against a Druze town in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. The attack killed 12 children who were playing football. Israel responded with a targeted strike against a senior Hezbollah military commander in Beirut. Shortly afterwards, an explosion killed a political leader of Hamas in Teheran.
The killing in Beirut did not cause much collateral damage and was planned not to push Hezbollah over its red lines. But it is feared that the killing in Teheran, for which Israel has not assumed responsibility, might provoke Iran to a disproportionate reprisal which could lead to a full-scale war on all fronts. Iran threatens to punish Israel for the humiliating violation of its sovereignty which disclosed a breach in its internal security.
Israel is now bracing for an imminent attack by Iran and its proxies in the region (Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and the Shia militias in Iraq).
Iranian statements and diplomatic sources have indicated that a reprisal is only a matter of time, for which Israel is prepared for a devastating counter-offensive, depending on the extent and damage of the Iranian reprisal. However, Israel faces a dilemma in not being sure of the timing of the Iranian attack. Regional experts question whether it will preempt the attack and trigger a full-scale war, or wait for the Iranian attack.
In any case, Israel is expected to respond immediately and in full force rather than wait, as it did for some days after Iran’s unprecedented attack last April. In that attack, almost all ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones that were fired by Iran and its proxies were intercepted by Israel in cooperation with an alliance of the US, the UK, France, and moderate Arab Sunni countries.
Enrique Mora, Deputy Secretary General at the European External Action Service (EEAS), represented High Representative Borrell at the inauguration ceremony last week of Iran’s new president and met Iranian diplomats as part of EU’s policy of ‘critical engagement’ with Iran. Here with Iranian diplomat Seyed Abbas Araghchi. The latter tweeted that “the Israeli occupying regime will pay a heavy price” for the killing of Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh. Credit: X
What is the EU’s risk assessment of the situation? “The risk assessment is reflected in the public calls by the G7 and High Representative Josep Borrell for de-escalation,” replied Peter Stano, EU’s lead spokesperson for foreign affairs, at the Commission’s press conference on Tuesday (6 August).
While declining to comment publicly on the EU’s contacts with Iran, he gave assurances that the EU is focusing all its public calls and diplomatic efforts on delivering the same message to all those involved in the conflict: they have to de-escalate to avoid the risk of a spill-over which would bring the region to a much worse conflict that no country or nation stands to gain from.
In his latest tweet on Tuesday morning, EU's High Representative Josep Borrell wrote: “Tensions keep escalating in the Middle East, bringing it to the brink of a war of unknown proportions. We all must prevent another catastrophe. The way forward is largely consensual: ceasefire in Gaza, now. All those standing in the way of de-escalation shall be held accountable.”
He is right about the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza (linked to a hostage deal) but it seems too late for that to prevent Iran’s reprisal attack. After months of negotiations, both Hamas and Israel had in principle agreed on the terms of a ceasefire-hostage deal. Such a deal would probably also have enabled Hezbollah to end its strikes against Israel and paved the way for a diplomatic solution.
Instead, the region is on the brink of full-scale war with devastating consequences for all countries. It is better to de-escalate now and agree on a political solution to prevent the outbreak of a war which any way will have to end by negotiations on a mutually acceptable political solution.
