The leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement on Monday calling on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks against Israel that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
The statement, signed by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, says that, “Iran and its allies will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability.”
The three leaders referred to the renewed ceasefire-hostage deal talks, mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar, that are planned to be held on Thursday.
“We agree that there can be no further delay,” the statement says. “We have been working with all parties to prevent escalation and will spare no effort to reduce tensions and find a path to stability. The fighting must end now, and all hostages still detained by Hamas must be released. The people of Gaza need urgent and unfettered delivery and distribution of aid.”
After months of negotiations, both Hamas and Israel had in principle agreed on the terms of ceasefire-hostage deal. A three-phase roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of the hostages was disclosed by US President Biden on 31 May. Since then, however, the Netanyahu government in Israel has added conditions that might jeopardise the deal.
The EU has also declared that it supports the last-minute efforts to conclude a ceasefire and hostages release negotiations. In a statement on behalf of the EU on Friday evening, EU’s High Representative Josep Borrell called on the full implementation of the terms of the ceasefire proposal without delay and without conditions.
The deal will also pave the way for a regional de-escalation, the statement concluded. In the meantime, Israel is on high alert, bracing for reprisal attacks by Iran and its proxies in the region following the targeted killings in Beirut and Teheran. The US has moved forces to the region and warned Iran for the consequences of a disproportionate attack which could easily escalate to full-scale war.
It was assumed until now that Iran was deterred and would leave the response to Hezbollah but a combined attack by Iran and Hezbollah cannot be excluded as soon as this week. An attack by Hezbollah alone would also be a challenge for Israel because of the short distances. Hezbollah’s Iranian-made drones and missiles can reach targets in northern Israel in a minute’s time and overwhelm its air defense.
The two sides continue to exchange chilling threats. The Israeli defense minister has warned Hezbollah for the Israeli counter attack. “As things stand, Nasrallah (Hezbollah’s leader) may drag Lebanon into paying extremely heavy prices. They can’t even imagine what might happen.”
In November last year, after Hamas surprise terrorist attack against Israel on 7 October, military experts assessed that the Israeli ground offensive in Gaza to dismantle Hamas should not take more than a few weeks or months, even if its goals would not be completely met. Otherwise, it would risk an escalation to a multi-front war and result in a humanitarian disaster in Gaza.
Since then, the war in Gaza has dragged on for more than ten months and resulted in an unprecedented humanitarian disaster. The whole region is now on the brink of an escalation which could lead to full-scale war by miscalculation, with devastating consequences for all countries. The ceasefire talks on Thursday are maybe the last chance to avoid this.
For the talks to succeed, Israel must keep to the Biden peace formula. For a sustainable ceasefire in the north, Hezbollah must withdraw from the south of Lebanon, to be replaced by the Lebanese army, in line with UN Security Council resolution 1701 from 2006. In return, Israel will have to withdraw from the Shebaa Farms, a small strip at the border, which Hezbollah claims is Lebanese territory.
