The federal negotiations seems to be on the right path, following another extension granted by the King to Bart De Wever, who seems likely to be the next Prime Minister.
He will have to reconcile the irreconcilable: more tax burdens on the one hand, yet lower taxed on the other hand, strengthening Belgium on the one hand and “undressing” Belgium on the other hand. A complex matter, but his mission actually still pales in comparison to the total shambles that the Brussels Region has become.
After almost 6 months, the situation is still so deadlocked that perhaps the question must be asked: will we actually get a new Brussels government?
The problem on the Dutch-speaking side remains that in almost every constellation 4 parties are needed for only 3 ministerial posts.
On November 14, Open VLD therefore suddenly declared itself willing to step into a Brussels majority without a ministerial post, but with a government commissioner instead. A very humble gesture by Open VLD, it seemed, but the party also wanted the vice-presidency of the Brussels parliament, the presidency of the FCC, the presidency of the STIB, the presidency of Citidev, the vice-presidency of Finance & Invest Brussels and the presidency of Actiris.
Anyone who thought that after 25 years of shameless careerism at all levels and an electoral blow-up, the party would finally go into opposition everywhere, could not have been more wrong. Cynically, that same Open VLD also demanded the competence of Budget for its government commissioner. It is precisely when under the supervision of the VLD budget minister Gatz that Brussels' debts more than doubled in just one legislature.
With the gesture of Open VLD, a new majority seems to be in the making with Groen, Vooruit, Open VLD and... N-VA.
However, that was not the liking of the PS. The Dutch speaking majority had only just been announced when Brussels PS boss Laaouej bluntly said in an interview that a coalition with N-VA was simply not an option for him.
Earlier, MR had also vetoed a coalition with Team Fouad Ahidar. The French-speaking parties rightly feel that things are not moving forward on the Dutch-speaking side, but at the same time they cannot resist vetoing one party or another. In theory, the French speakers have nothing to say about this, but the PS is also indispensable for a Brussels government.
One solution could be for N-VA to be replaced by CD&V, but the party, headed by Benjamin Dalle in Brussels, has already clearly thanked no to that. Moreover, Elke Vanden Brandt made it explicitly clear on Flemish Radio 1 that Open VLD is only willing to give up a ministerial post in a coalition with N-VA, not with the much smaller CD&V.
Moreover, that coalition would only have a very narrow majority, which is problematic for Groen because Groen's next successor in the Brussels parliament, Ange-Raïssa Uzanziga, switched to Team Fouad Ahidar a few months ago. In short, anyone who thought the federal situation was hopeless had better not look at Brussels.
For the time being, the current Vervoort government is carrying on in current affairs. The current coalition was mercilessly defeated and is left with only 37 seats out of 89.
In the meantime, however, a lot is moving in the Brussels municipalities. For example, PS and Ecolo formed a majority with the PTB in Forest and PS and PTB want to work together in Molenbeek and possibly also Schaarbeek.
The party that before the elections Magnette still described as “des couillons” (idiots) has in the meantime become a coveted coalition partner in the Brussels municipalities.
This also has far-reaching implications at the regional level, as the PS suddenly has a fallback option there as well. With tacit support from the PTB-PVDA, the current Brussels government would indeed have a fairly large majority of 53 out of 89 seats, with a majority on both sides.
For coalition partner Défi this would be the ultimate humiliation, but they have collapsed so badly that they are no longer even needed for a majority. So for the PS, there is no urgency in the regional negotiations. The MR of Leisterh and Bouchez is quietly getting desperate.
Underlying this whole imbroglio, however, is a much deeper demographic change in the Brussels Region. The old French-speaking bourgeoisie has seen its power gradually erode over the last 35 years. In 1989, PRL (now MR), PSC (now Les Engagés) and FDF (now Défi) together still got 52% of the seats in the first elections of the Brussels parliament.
This year they reached only 38% and in 2019 even only 33%. The old Belgian power parties, which have always fought virulently for a Brussels as a region à part entière, have thus now lost that power with little prospect of improvement.
This puts them in a hellish dilemma: should they form alliances with the new Muslim Democrats of Team Fouad Ahidar or seek an alliance with the N-VA? For the MR, this choice was quickly made with a veto against Team Fouad Ahidar.
However, an alliance with N-VA in Brussels also has consequences. On the one hand it threatens to push a further “flamandisation” of Brussels, but on the other hand it could also be an alibi for the French-speaking left-wing parties (PS-Ecolo-PTB), largely fed by votes from immigrant communities, to assert their own majority, as is happening now in several municipalities and in the future perhaps also at the regional level.
The loss of power of the rich French-speaking bourgeoisie in Brussels could also have very far-reaching consequences for Belgium itself. What interest does the French-speaking bourgeoisie actually have in a Brussels as a région à part entière when it is completely bankrupt from a budgetary point of view and is also in danger of being dominated by left-wing Islamo-Communist forces?
This reality came painfully to the surface this week when the book presentation “Allah n´a rien à faire dans ma classe” at the FNAC in the affluent Sint-Lambrechts-Woluwe had to be cancelled after threats to the staff. The French-speaking elite of yesteryear seems to have completely lost control of its beloved region.
Ultimately, then, the wealthy francophone residents of Uccle, Watermael-Boitsfort, Auderghem and the Woluwes will have to ask themselves: are their interests best served by a Brussels région à part entière where communists and Muslim democrats (at best) are in control, or is it more interesting to become officially bilingual municipalities in the larger Flanders, so that communist and Muslim influence can be contained to the poorer crescent of the Brussels Region (Molenbeek, Anderlecht, Schaarbeek and Laken)?
In the 60s, Flanders used to fear the Brussels “oil slick” spreading across Flanders in the form of Frenchification. Today the French-speaking bourgeoisie must worry about the Islamo-Communist oil slick spreading within its own Brussels region.
