“Alea iacta est,” Bart De Wever spoke on January 31, to seal his successful formation. He could also have used Neil Amstrong's words when Apollo 11 landed on the moon in 1969: “The eagle has landed.”
The Antwerp eagle had landed at 16 Rue de la Loi/Wetstraat 16, and that still feels a little unreal to many.
The N-VA's seizure of power at the federal level is nevertheless a logical consequence of the categorical refusal of all top French-speaking politicians to enter the conversation about confederalism. The only alternative left to the N-VA as the country's largest party logically became the “état belgo-flamand.”
The first attempt at this with the Swedish coalition of Michel I was rather timid because De Wever himself decided to stay in Antwerp as shadow prime minister. Today, however, the N-VA is more powerful at the federal level than ever before.
Not only does it now supply the Prime Minister itself, but also the Flemish dominance in the “kern” (core cabinet) with 4 Flemish excellencies against 2 French speakers speaks volumes. Moreover, unlike the “Swedish” coalition of Michel I, this construction is supported by a majority in both communities, which greatly strengthens the legitimacy of the Prime Minister and makes bicefal policies possible.
The N-VA constituency today seems happy to snuggle into the cenacle of Belgian power. Even a hardliner like Theo Francken seems to be dreaming aloud of a stronger Belgian army under his watch, rather than a free Flemish nation.
The strategy behind this is clear. If the French-speakers are not willing to enter into talks about confederalism, a federal Belgium is only interesting if the Flemish numerical dominance can effectively prevail.
Paul Magnette already immediately complained on X about the fact that almost all important departments are now in Flemish hands: taxes, health care, pensions, justice and purchasing power. Under Michel I, the PS still retained its power in Wallonia, but today the party is in opposition everywhere.
De Wever's hope, no doubt, is that this will rekindle Walloon regionalism among socialists, which has always existed as a strong undercurrent. Clearly De Wever will not make the same mistake of leaving Michel I too soon because of the Marrakesh pact again. The goal this time is to stay in power for at least 10 years or even as long as it takes.
What will happen to Brussels?
The federal power grab also has important implications for Brussels. The interest of the Flemish-national parties in the federal capital has been at a very low ebb over the past decades. Sometimes, one even got the impression they considered Brussels as some kind of foreign territory, despite it also being the official Flemish capital.
The clear shift toward the pursuit of maximum Flemish power within a federal Belgium also logically means that N-VA will become much more intensely involved with Brussels. Whoever wants to dominate a country must also be able to exert some power in the capital. The imposed merger of the Brussels police zones should certainly also be seen in that light, apart from the obvious perspective of police effectiveness.
This is very difficult to swallow for MR and especially Les Engagés, because their own mayors clearly do not follow suit. But they don't have much choice, because the budgetary situation in Brussels is so disastrous that they will likely need the federal government badly in the years to come.
The new situation at the federal level is also driving Brussels PS chairman Ahmed Laaouej further and further into a corner. His virulent opposition to the N-VA and his refusal to even simply enter talks threatens to blow up in his face.
Time is not on his side. The absence of a Brussels government will cause the Region's rating to fall further, making the budgetary situation even more dire. Moreover, limiting unemployment over time will make the pressure unbearable on Brussels' CPAS/OCMW, where just the PS is often at the controls, especially in the poorer communes.
This was already painfully illustrated by an undercover reportage conducted by the VRT, the Flemish public broadcaster. It turned out that the PS president of the CPAS/OCMW saw it as his privilege to approve public welfare payments to anyone asking him personally. In addition, payments were also easily handed out by overwhelmed and overworked welfare workers, who simply had no time to do any background checks.
The current deadlock is therefore not just down to petty political games. It reflects a fundamental choice to be made: is the Brussels region willing to accept a bigger Flemish influence through the participation of the N-VA in its government? Or does it instead want to curb the political power and the rights of the Flemish minority living in Brussels, thereby also cutting ties with Flanders?
The preference of parties like PS, Ecolo, Défi and PTB/PVDA is clearly the latter, but the budgetary reality of a virtually bankrupt Brussels Region makes parties like MR and Les Engagés, as well as virtually all Flemish parties, lean towards the former.
The current political situation has no easy solution and might still drag on for months without any external pressure. Meanwhile, a growing number of policy areas will get affected as no actual decisions can be made by the current caretaker government. The next phase of metro works on line 3 is already on hold, the Renolution building renovation program had to be paused, several social housing agencies are starting to face payment difficulties, non-governmental organizations only get monthly budgets to work with, and it does not look like things will get any better soon.
Without a new government, the budget deficit is expected to decrease slightly from 1.6 to 1.5 billion euros/year, but this is still a whopping 20% of income, which is completely unsustainable. A few weeks ago, Belfius bank reduced its credit line to Brussels from 500 to 200 million euros.
A clear warning sign that patience is running out. If politicians are unable to make a decision on the right course of action, it is not unlikely banks will decide for them. This may ultimately also lead to discussions on a new big state reform after the 2029 elections, pushing Belgium into a new existential crisis just before its 200th anniversary. Brussels could probably think of nicer gifts.
