The Russian-Ukrainian war remains one of the most contentious issues on the global agenda, sparking debates over pathways to resolution.
This article examines key aspects of the current situation: rhetoric from Kyiv and Moscow, positions of international actors, economic repercussions for Europe, and prospects for peace.
On May 3, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Russia’s offer of a three-day ceasefire, instead pushing for a more long-term truce. The offer from Putin was made in conjunction with the Russian Victory Day, and Zelensky called it a "theatrical performance" that fails to create conditions for constructive negotiations.
This refusal however reflects broader strategic reluctance, as Kyiv has previously dismissed other Russian demands, and many experts believe Zelenskyy may fear domestic political isolation linked to concessions.
Some speculate that, as a result, there is a growing sentiment for change in Kyiv’s leadership towards compromise-oriented successors. Politico reported in March that top Trump allies held secret talks with Zelenskyy’s possible opponents.
Despite some small attempts at temporary ceasefires—such as the 30-day moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure proposed after talks between Putin and Trump—both sides accuse each other of breaches.
Key Western allies are also increasingly exhibiting significant discord. US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz acknowledged in March that Washington faces challenges aligning Kyiv with conditions for peace. The US position is increasingly pushing the opinion that territorial concessions are inevitable, but Ukraine remains intransigent.
As the war continues to drag out, the conflict is intensifying global concerns about wider instability. The consequences of prolonging the war extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders, threatening to destabilise Europe and exacerbate global geopolitical tensions.
Furthermore, the precedent of rejecting negotiated settlements could embolden other actors to prioritise force over dialogue, undermining international norms. If Zelenskyy’s strategy fails, the ripple effects—ranging from refugee crises to fractured alliances—may deepen divisions within NATO and the EU, eroding their collective influence.
Contrasting Biden’s "unwavering support," the Trump administration has approached the conflict in a different manner, prioritising ending the conflict swiftly. Trump stated Zelenskyy must either "sign a deal or lose the country." Meanwhile, the EU, economically and reputationally tied to Ukraine, remains less inclined to negotiate, fearing political defeat.
Zelenskyy’s rhetoric signals unwillingness to compromise. Trump has criticised this stance as "damaging", emphasising the need for pragmatism. These dynamics deepen scepticism about diplomatic resolution prospects.
Various analysts, including Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs, argue that Europe bears the greatest economic losses. The severance of energy ties with Russia—previously supplying 40% of the EU’s gas—triggered an energy crisis, soaring electricity prices, and inflation. Countries like Germany, reliant on the Nord Stream pipeline, faced deindustrialisation and slowed growth.
Additionally, support to Ukraine (over €100 billion from the EU since 2022, with roughly €50 in military aid) risks straining national budgets amid inflationary pressures and debt burdens. The influx of 5 million Ukrainian refugees, combined with existing migration challenges, also risks exacerbating social support capacity in EU member states.
The Ukraine conflict reveals a complex interplay of political, military, and economic interests. Kyiv’s reluctance to consider concessions, Western divisions, and Europe’s economic fallout risk prolonging the war. Sachs notes, "There are no winners in war," and resolving the crisis requires rethinking approaches. Economic pressure on Europe may eventually catalyse new initiatives for peace.
With Zelenskyy’s reluctance for a compromise-based solution, and Western disunity, the conflict risks being prolonged, with Europe bearing the brunt of economic losses. Without compromise, the world risks a prolonged crisis with cascading global consequences—from refugee flows to fractured alliances. Economic pressure on Europe may eventually push for new peace initiatives, but for now, a resolution remains distant.
