After more than 53 years orbiting Earth, a Soviet spacecraft is set to re-enter the atmosphere on Saturday, with its debris path remaining unpredictable.
However, the risk of the satellite falling on Belgium is minimal. A European Space Agency blog estimates the chance of a person being injured by space debris to be less than one in 100 billion. For comparison, you are about 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning.
The Kosmos 482 probe was launched from Baikonur in March 1972, originally destined for Venus. Shortly after launch, the spacecraft broke into four parts. Two pieces crashed back to Earth, while the lander, weighing 500 kg, has been orbiting for 53 years.
Kosmos 482’s altitude has been steadily decreasing over the years, and it can no longer resist Earth’s gravity.
According to the latest calculations from the European Space Surveillance and Tracking, the probe is expected to crash on Saturday at 8:07, although there is a margin of error of several hours.
The likelihood of the lander completely disintegrating in the atmosphere is low because it was designed to land on Venus, a planet known for its extreme heat and toxic, sulphur-laden atmosphere. The probe’s titanium shield is expected to perform effectively. A gentle landing is unlikely, as the parachute inside the probe is likely no longer functional.
Kosmos 482’s descent can be tracked online, including on n2yo.com and heavens-above.com.
