The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicts that global warming is likely to top 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029, with a probability rate of 70%.
Following the hottest years on record, 2023 and 2024, the planet is expected to maintain historically high warming levels, according to a report produced for the WMO by the UK Met Office. The report, published on Wednesday by the UN agency, draws on forecasts from 10 international centres.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”
The global warming rate of 1.5°C is measured against the 1850-1900 period, before the industrial burning of coal, oil, and gas, which emits CO2, the primary greenhouse gas driving climate change.
This target is the most optimistic goal set by countries in the 2015 Paris Agreement, but many climate scientists now deem it unattainable, as global CO2 emissions have not begun to decline, but are, in fact, still rising.
Christopher Hewitt, Director of Climate Services at the WMO, explained that various methods are used to assess long-term warming.
One approach combines observations from the past decade with projections for the next, using a central estimate that results in an average current warming of 1.44°C over the 2015-2034 period. “There is no consensus,” Hewitt advised.
However, this estimate is similar to that of the European Copernicus observatory, which stands at 1.39°C.
