The European Commission triggered a bit of a philosophical debate with an announcement about climate target progress this week. Depending on your particular outlook on life, it was either good or bad news.
By 2030, the European Union must have collectively cut its emissions output 55% compared with levels recorded in 1990. This milestone is important as it is a crucial stepping stone towards 2050’s net zero benchmark.
The ‘Fit for 55’ package of rules, reforms and new policies was designed to make this 2030 target achievable. Just four and a bit years out from D-Day – or maybe C-Day, for climate – the Commission has produced one of its regular reviews of progress towards that goal.
According to current projections, the EU will achieve a cut of 54% if all of the measures, rules, laws, regulations, pledges and promises so far made by national governments are actually implemented.
So is this good or bad news?
Good news
One percentage point difference is arguably not a big deal. Estimating and measuring emissions is more of an art form that an exact science given the sheer scale and size of Europe’s energy system, so it could even be marked down as a margin for error.
There is also the fact that there is nearly half a decade left to go until 2030 and a lot can change in that time. Being so close to being on track and with time left to make changes and take it a bit more seriously, is not a bad position to be in.
Renewable energy developments keep going from strength to strength as well, with technologies like solar outstripping even the most ambitious projections on a regular basis. The EU's subtarget of meeting 42.5% of energy demand from renewables is on track.
The true impact of policies like CO2 car targets, emissions trading system reforms and the EU’s new carbon border tax are still yet to be observed too. Estimates about emission cuts are one thing, reality is another. These reforms need time to work their magic.
So if you’re a glass half-full type of individual, there are reasons why 54% rather than 55% is nothing to worry about.
Bad news
However, a lot of that logic can also be turned on its head. For example, 54% is what can be achieved if everything promised in national energy and climate plans is implemented.
History has shown time and time again that what is written down on paper rarely transfers fully to real world implementation. Governments are giving themselves no room to manoeuvre if world events once again upset the apple cart.
Pandemics, illegal invasions, supply chain collapses and other unknown unknowns might happen in the next five years. As mentioned above, a lot can happen in that time. Populist governments that are against climate policies might also win support and put the brakes on as well.
Environmental groups are already deeply unhappy with the national plans and have urged the Commission to take countries to court if sweeping changes are not made to those strategies.
There is also an argument to be made that 55% was the very bare minimum that the EU should be striving for in order to not only make 2050’s goal achievable but also to prevent emissions from building up in the atmosphere in the short term.
It was not so long ago that policymakers were considering upgrading 55% to 57% when fresh accounting suggested that an extra two percentage points was possible thanks to carbon sinks like forests. But national governments snuffed out any chance of that happening.
If Europe is supposed to be leading the world on building a green economy, is this really the best we can muster?
Knock-on impact
Whether the EU will meet the 2030 goal will of course depend on what is implemented over the course of the next few years. But it will also have an impact further down the line, on the 2040 target.
The European Commission is poised to publish its plan for 2040 before the summer and is expected to suggest that a 90% emission cut is the best way forward.
Some national governments are already sceptical about that figure and are either quietly calling for it to be lower or for extra perks like controversial carbon offset schemes to be eligible under the plan.
Now the question is: will being off or on track to meet 2030 – depending on your own view – help or hinder the 2040 policymaking effort?
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