The carbon tax set to be introduced by the European Union in 2027 could cost Belgian households between €250 and €400 per year, according to an impact analysis by the Federal Planning Bureau on Tuesday.
The second phase of the European emissions trading system (ETS2) will lead to more expensive fossil fuels, including natural gas, heating oil, petrol and diesel.
The Planning Bureau estimates the price of these emission allowances at €60 per tonne of CO2 when they are introduced. If these costs are passed on in full, this will lead to an additional annual costs for Belgian households.
According to the Planning Bureau, heating homes will become particularly expensive. Fuel oil would become 21% more expensive and natural gas 16%. The price of petrol and diesel at the pump would increase by 10% and 11% respectively.
Low-income households, families who heat with heating oil, single people and single-parent families are most at risk of a relatively sharp increase in their expenditure as a percentage of their income.
For the poorest 10%, the energy budget would increase by 1.3% of income, while for the richest 10% it would increase by only 0.5%, although the absolute amounts for the latter group are higher.
The study is based on simulations carried out by the Planning Bureau as part of the Social Climate Plan.
This means that, from 2028, €362 million in Flemish taxes will be shifted from the electricity bill to the natural gas and heating oil bill.
The impact of this has not yet been taken into account in the study. Nor has any account been taken of sustainable investments or possible changes in household behaviour.
According to De Tijd, the estimates are in line with earlier estimates by the research institute VITO/Energyville. These estimated additional costs of between €207 and €368.
