EU-US trade war avoided: Capitulation or good deal?

EU-US trade war avoided: Capitulation or good deal?
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, travels to Scotland, upon invitation of Donald Trump, President of the United States, to discuss transatlantic trade relations Sunday 28 July 2025. Credit: EU

After agreeing a new trade deal on Sunday night which sets a 15% tariff on EU imports into the US, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been accused of surrendering to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Others, however, welcome avoiding a US-EU trade war.

After weeks of pressure over his alleged involvement in the Epstein affair, Trump spent the weekend golfing at the course he owns in Ayrshire, Scotland.

He was joined by President von der Leyen and her team on Sunday who were desperate to secure a deal that would lower the tariffs facing key sectors of EU industry.

The deal stabilises the €1.4 trillion trade between the EU and the US and avoids a 30% tariff rate Trump threatened to impose on 1 August if talks had collapsed.

Many in the US are hailing it as a big victory for Trump, while the deal is proving hard to sell in Europe. With the EU caving to US tariff demands, critics argue that Trump’s hostility on his so-called allies has worked.

Arms and energy

Others argue the deal is not a complete disaster for the EU, who was being threatened with 30% tariffs by Trump, who believes it will promote domestic manufacturing, protect national security, and replace income taxes.

That said, 15% is still a much higher than the rates in place before Trump came into office, which averaged at average of 4.8%, according to the EU trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič. On the plane back, he conceded that the EU was now in a worse position than before Trump came into office.

In concrete terms, the 15% will be applied to most sectors, including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, according to von der Leyen.

Trump had also placed 25% tariffs on the automobile industry in April, with Germany having been particularly affected. While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed Sunday's deal, the domestic automobile industry still maintains it will be hard hit by the higher tariffs.

Importantly, the EU has agreed to purchase significant amounts of US energy products, replacing Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG, oil and nuclear fuels.

They have also agreed to buy billions worth of US produced arms. Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by $600 billion, including American military equipment, and spend $750 billion on energy.

It comes after months of US pressure on Europe to increase its defending capabilities, but will now instead rely on US imports rather build its own production capabilities.

Shipping at the Port of Antwerp. Credit Belga / Dirk Waem

Some goods will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals, critical raw materials and some agricultural products.

There is confusion over aluminium and steel, as Trump claimed his 50% tariffs would still apply, whereas von der Leyen stated that a quota system would be introduced.

The EU deal brings with it the expectation of roughly $90 billion of tariff revenue for US government coffers – based on last year's trade figures.

Sunday’s announcement was moreover, a political agreement, which means that Trump would still be able to change the terms, as seen following the US-Japan agreement.

'Sombre day'

Von der Leyen said that the agreement will have "a clear impact on the bottom lines of our companies" by "securing access to our largest export market".

"At the same time, we will give better access for [sic] American products in our market. This will benefit European consumers and make our businesses more competitive," the German EU leader said.

US President Donald Trump (R) and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (L) speak to the press after agreeing on a trade deal between the two economies following their meeting, in Turnberry south west Scotland on July 27, 2025. Credit: Belga / AFP

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever cautiously welcomed the agreement, calling it a day "of relief but not of celebration."

The Belgian Prime Minister will be worried about the diverging views of the deal on pharmaceuticals, a Belgian key export to the US, with Trump stating the deal did not apply to that sector, while von der Leyen said otherwise, as previously stated.

France has criticised the deal as “unbalanced”, with French Prime Minister François Bayrou saying on social media: "it is a a sombre day when an alliance of free peoples, united to affirm their values and defend their interests, resigns themselves to submission."

French MEP Sandro Gozi meanwhile said that "this compromise raises more concerns than it resolves".

"It exposes us to new energy dependencies, leaves large parts of Made in Europe unprotected, imposes high costs on our companies in exchange for a temporary truce, and rewards those who use threats as a negotiation tool," Gozi stated. "It’s a heavy price to pay for our value chains – and certainly not the kind of strategic autonomy we are striving for."

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