The global growth of renewable energy is slowing due to policy changes in the United States and China, jeopardising the goal of tripling capacity by 2030 set at COP28 in Dubai.
The slow down was announced in the the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s latest annual report. Last year, the IEA believed this goal, outlined in COP28’s final agreement, to be achievable.
However, now the international organisation predicts global renewable energy capacity will increase to just 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030.
This forecast is 5% lower than last year’s projection, reflecting shifts in policies, regulations, and market conditions since October 2024.
Two key factors are driving the slowdown, the agency notes.
First, the anticipated end of federal tax incentives in the United States, coupled with other regulatory changes, has prompted the IEA to cut its forecasts for the US renewable energy market by nearly 50% compared to last year.
Second, China’s move from regulated tariffs to an auction-based system for purchasing renewable electricity is reducing project profitability, leading to lowered growth expectations for the country.
The IEA currently expects global renewable energy capacity to increase by 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, equivalent to the combined total production capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan.
This is a significant revision from last year’s estimate, which envisioned nearly tripling capacity with over 5,500 GW of new installations between 2024 and 2030.
