The global economy continues to show resilience in amid ongoing uncertainty caused by US tariffs and the resulting trade tensions, according to data released on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF expects global economic growth to reach 3.2% this year, a 0.2% increase compared to its July forecast, which had already been revised upwards by the same margin.
Growth is projected to continue in 2026, with the IMF currently forecasting a global expansion of 3.1%.
This would confirm a gradual slowing trend seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, characterised by consistent but decelerating global GDP growth.
The IMF’s forecasts were calculated before the latest escalation in tensions between Washington and Beijing and the possibility of new tariffs announced by Donald Trump.
“Global growth remains stable but fragile,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned during a briefing with journalists.
He emphasised that it takes time for the full economic impacts of tariffs to become evident.
“The trade shock has been somewhat less severe than anticipated,” Gourinchas said, attributing this to newly announced trade agreements, exemptions between the US and key trading partners, and the fact that many nations refrained from retaliatory measures.
However, the effects of tariffs are noticeable, particularly in the redirection of trade flows. For instance, China now trades more with Asia and Europe while reducing its trade with the US.
