Cutbacks to development aid by the US and several European countries could result in 22.6 million avoidable deaths globally by 2030, including millions of children, according to a study published on Monday.
The research, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, builds on a 2024 study that examined funding reductions at the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
This updated version takes into account recent announcements of decreased aid budgets by France, Germany, and the UK.
Experts calculate that these combined reductions will have increased the estimated number of preventable deaths by 2030 from 14 million to 22.6 million.
“This is the first time in three decades that France, Germany, the UK, and the US are simultaneously cutting their international aid budgets,” said Gonzalo Fanjul, one of the authors.
“Though European nations are not on the same scale as the US, the overall impact on the global aid system is devastating,” he added.
The researchers used data showing that international aid has contributed significantly to reducing mortality rates worldwide, with programmes targeting diseases like HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis playing a crucial role in saving lives.
In the most severe scenario of widespread funding cuts, the study predicts 22.6 million additional deaths over the next seven years, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
Even moderate reductions would still lead to an estimated 9.4 million excess deaths, the researchers say.
