Deaths linked to air pollution in Greece are projected to rise sharply by 2090 despite expected improvements in air quality, with population ageing identified as the main driver.
A study of air pollution scenarios in Greece has examined future health impacts from two key air pollutants — fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which can enter the bloodstream, and ground-level ozone (O3) — using a method based on the Global Burden of Disease programme, the European Commission announced on Thursday.
The study estimated that about 7,900 deaths a year in Greece were linked to PM2.5 exposure in 2000, and projected this would increase under all three scenarios modelled by 2090, by a factor of 1.7 to 2.
Deaths associated with ozone exposure were projected to rise by more than 130% to over 1,000 a year by 2090, except in the most optimistic scenario modelled, where ozone-related mortality fell to near zero across all regions due to stringent air-quality measures.
Ageing population and regional gaps
The average age of the Greek population was 42 in 2000 and is projected to rise to 54–57 by 2090, with a substantial increase in the share of people aged over 85, the report said.
The study reported that Attica and Central Macedonia — which together host more than half of Greece’s population — showed some of the largest projected increases in air pollution-linked deaths.
In Attica, PM2.5-related deaths were projected to reach about 6,000 a year by 2090 under the optimistic scenario, an increase of more than 200% compared with 2000.
Ozone-related deaths were projected to rise by 160%–250% in Attica under the middle-of-the-road and pessimistic scenarios, while Central Macedonia was projected to see an 85%–120% increase.
The findings were published as “The future health burden of air pollution in Greece and the associated drivers” in "Science of The Total Environment" in 2025.
