Euro area consumers reported slightly lower inflation perceptions and short-term inflation expectations in January, while seeing little change in growth and unemployment prospects.
The median perceived inflation rate over the previous 12 months fell to 3.0% from 3.2% a month earlier, according to the European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey reported on Friday.
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also eased to 2.6% from 2.8%, while expectations three years ahead were unchanged at 2.6%.
Longer-term expectations dipped slightly, with the median five-year inflation expectation edging down to 2.3% from 2.4%. Uncertainty around 12-month inflation expectations was unchanged.
Lower-income households continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than higher-income households, a pattern seen since 2023.
People aged 18 to 34 again reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older age groups.
Consumers’ expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.2% from 1.1%, driven by the top three income groups.
Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months was unchanged at 3.4%, while perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months was steady at 4.9%.
Growth outlook steady as housing expectations tick up
Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months were unchanged at -1.1% in January, the ECB said.
The median expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead also held steady at 11.0%, compared with a perceived current unemployment rate of 10.6%.
Among unemployed respondents, the expected probability of finding a job over the next three months rose to 30.1% in January from 24.5% in October, while employed respondents reported a slightly lower expected probability of losing their job, at 8.2% from 8.5% over the same period.
Households expected home prices to rise by 3.7% over the next 12 months, up from 3.6% in December.
Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time were unchanged at 4.7%.
More households reported a tightening in access to credit over the previous year, and more also expected tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months.
The share of consumers who said they had applied for credit in the past three months fell to 14.8% in January from 15.7% in October.
The results come from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, a monthly online poll of around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries, published on 27 February 2026. The next release is scheduled for 27 March 2026.
