Health has not typically been part of economic growth discussions but, in a scenario where our population is not projected to grow but get older, preserving and fortifying health will become a driver of economic growth and productivity in the years ahead.
Indeed, as the European population structure continues to age, early mortality caused by co-morbidities and chronic disease has been shown to cost the EU hundreds of billions of euros every year – and that figure does not even take into account lost productivity, meaning the true cost is even greater.
Proactively intervening to avoid healthy people and those with comorbidities falling sick can enable a resilient healthcare system and strengthen Europe’s security and competitiveness. A golden opportunity to invest in keeping people healthy has now opened as talks on long-term health budgets begin. By investing in preventive healthcare, doctor and hospital visits are reduced, meaning valuable resources can be allocated elsewhere. It also ensures a healthy and active workforce throughout life can boost economic productivity.
The good news is that we now have many new technologies to help prevent diseases that did not exist before and Europe is in a position of strength, holding global leadership positions on the development and manufacturing of these innovative technologies. Getting ahead of disease and making investments in future-minded healthcare systems is a policy priority that is starting to build momentum and is fully aligned with the EU Council’s long term strategic agenda.
If a healthy workforce is a productive workforce, then it stands to reason that national leaders who are serious about other crucial goals like preventing deindustrialisation and attracting innovative businesses, need to include healthcare reforms in long-term planning.
Vaccine-preventable diseases like RSV, pneumococcal, and flu amongst other preventable infectious diseases impose a significant economic and health burden. Data shows that infectious diseases like RSV are also having an impact, causing 270,000 hospitalisations and over 20,000 deaths per year in Europe alone. Illnesses such as respiratory or cardiovascular diseases place significant and fast-growing burdens on healthcare systems and economic productivity. Among G20 countries, productivity loss due to preventable conditions in people aged 50 to 64 costs $1 trillion annually.
Cases of chronic respiratory disease have surged nearly 50% since 1990, now affecting more than 500 million people worldwide. By 2050, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease alone could cost the global economy $4 trillion due to hospitalisations and productivity loss. Chronic diseases are responsible for 43 million deaths each year, around three-quarters of all global deaths. Strikingly, 40% of these are considered preventable.
There are now cutting edge science and healthcare innovations that can help people to live better and live longer, powering our economies and our societies. This includes long acting treatments for respiratory diseases, obesity, vaccine technologies like mRNA and adjuvanted vaccines, as well as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)-powered discovery methods.
“At GSK, we advance oncology through partnerships, such as Tempus and King’s College, to match the right patient with the right treatment at the right disease stage. Using organoids, digital pathology and AI, we’re recreating clinical conditions to predict responses, accelerate development and increase early‑stage success,” says Hesham Abdullah, Senior Vice President, Global Head Oncology, R&D, GSK.
“Unlocking the power of prevention can be the game changer to unlock Europe’s long-term prosperity. Let’s embrace it together. We at GSK are ready to play our part and collaborate with the EU, its member states and all relevant stakeholders to get ahead of disease and finally transform health into wealth for all.”
Any policies that support these innovations to lessen the impact of or even prevent or eliminate disease all together must be prioritised.
Budget and fiscal opportunity
EU leaders are gearing up to decide on the next multi-year budget (2027-2034), which offers a golden opportunity to pivot towards healthcare system standards and member state spending on healthcare reforms that have prevention and immunisation as a fundamental pillar. Talks have begun and will last through 2026. Earmarking dedicated budget lines for funding innovation pipelines – vaccines, long-acting medicines, early diagnostics and digital tools – that target diseases before they take hold must be considered.
There is clear public support for this. Ahead of last year’s European Parliament elections, 32% of voters listed health as a primary concern, according to an EU-wide survey. This gives lawmakers a strong mandate to push for more health-focused spending.
While spending on healthcare in the EU in 2019 was equivalent to 10.0% of GDP, only around 5% of the total was dedicated to prevention across wealthy countries. Preventive healthcare in the EU accounted for just 0.65 % of GDP on average[1] and immunisation only 0.5% of the healthcare budget in EU countries.
Early mortality, illness and hospitalisation caused by chronic disease and co-morbidities has been shown to cost the EU hundreds of billions of euros every year. That figure does not even take into account lost productivity, meaning the true cost is even greater. Chronic disease can also make people more at risk of some infectious diseases such as flu, covid and RSV.
Moreover, the OECD estimated that deaths from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases and diabetes cost the EU around 3.4 million productive life years in 2013, which leads to an output loss of 0.8% of GDP.[2] At a time when competition is everything, this is a situation that cannot be allowed to continue.
Studies show that for every €1 invested in prevention, there is a return of €4. By 2050, COPD alone could cost the global economy $4 trillion due to hospitalisations and productivity loss. It is also estimated that between 2020 and 2050, cancers will cost the global economy more than $25 trillion. Vaccination in particular offers a potential 19:1 return thanks to avoided healthcare costs and productivity gains made possible by preventing illness-related disruptions in the workplace.
In Italy, a study shows that during a flu epidemic, €220 of savings in work productivity can be generated for each hospital worker vaccinated against influenza.
In Spain, adult vaccine-preventable diseases generate an estimated €134 million per year in direct medical costs. Shingles and its complications account for approximately 16% of this total burden, largely driven by hospitalizations, repeated primary care visits, and the long-term healthcare management of post-herpetic neuralgia. The Office of Health Economics (OHE) has found that preventing illness reduces doctor and hospital visits, so valuable resources can be allocated elsewhere. That ensures that workers are healthier and more productive across the board.
Also in Spain, a study estimates a return of €3 generated for every euro invested in COPD prevention proposals. Another global study of eleven cancers (including breast, lunch, cervical and colorectal) finds an estimated return on investment of over $12 for every dollar spent on scaling up screenings.
Health improvements could add $12 trillion to global GDP by 2040, so the impact of making policy changes, aligning the EU budget with these priorities and investing in the here and now cannot be understated.
In the current geopolitical context, Europe simply cannot afford not to make these investments.
Why flexibility helps
Newly adopted EU fiscal rules and the ongoing discussion about fiscal flexibility are also significant in this push for more focus on public health.
The EU’s New Economic Governance Framework (NEGF) was issued in April 2024 and allows member state governments more leeway for “economic and social resilience” spending. Member states must use their Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plans to take advantage of this flexibility. This is crucial because it enables governments to implement prevention measures like screening progammes and immunisation programmes. Long-term, excluding those investments from deficit rules should also be considered, according to the healthcare industry.
There are some notable good examples of aligning prevention with long-term fiscal sustainability: Italy’s senate recently unanimously called for immunisation and screening to be embedded in its Social & Economic Resilience Plan.
Recent history has shown in quite clear terms that investments in prevention are a no-regret option.
There is political will and public support to place healthcare at the heart of EU policymaking. The next Multiannual Financial Framework will be one of the most critical budgets yet, so setting it up to succeed should be the priority of every single legislator.
By embracing prevention as a strategic priority, Europe can safeguard its healthcare systems, enhance societal resilience and secure a healthier, more sustainable future for all.
The coverage of this topic has been made possible with the support of GSK, while all research and writing were conducted by The Brussels Times.
Sources:
[1] (viii Eurostat: Preventive health care expenditure statistics)
[1] (iii OECD, “The labour market impacts of ill health”, Health at a Glance: Europe 2016)
