Ongoing disruption to energy markets caused by conflict in the Middle East is obliterating many remaining arguments against fast and widespread adoption of clean energy in place of imported fossil fuels.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin decided in 2022 to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, it made many previously unthinkable things suddenly very feasible indeed.
That included Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Germany abandoning its non-negotiable debt brake and countries like Iceland and Norway starting to think about embracing European Union membership.
Fast forward four years and the United States’ military operations in Iran and the wider conflict ongoing in the Gulf States and Lebanon looks to be on the cusp of triggering a similar sea change in the political landscape.
Russia’s invasion and the subsequent cutting off of most hydrocarbon imports forced the EU to get more serious about producing its own energy, reducing energy demand and diversifying where it buys its energy.
Clean energy installations have increased and supply deals mostly for gas were brokered. Energy savings initiatives were not embraced with the same fervour though, indeed they were actually undermined when many governments decided to subsidise energy bills.
The conflict in Iran is not going to blow over in a couple of weeks, months or maybe even years. This is a massive shock to the global energy market, one from which the current iteration may not actually ever recover.
Oil prices are climbing, there are whispers about countries imposing export embargoes to protect their domestic markets and governments are announcing policies on a daily basis aimed at dealing with potential fuel shortages.
Just one month ago, some British politicians were complaining that the UK government had locked the taxpayer into expensive clean energy prices during the latest renewable power auction. Now, that long-term planning looks utterly genius in retrospect.
The Irans, Russias and Trumps of this world, the great uncertainty generators, make the need for a rapid energy transition absolutely essential. Climate change was not enough to trigger action, but this has to be the catalyst for a long-overdue wakeup call.
Countries like Spain and France that rely on carbon-free power like solar and nuclear, are insulated from fuel price spikes. Other nations that still need hydrocarbons are paying the price and pushing for the wrong kind of policy changes.
Instead of raging against the inevitable and calling for initiatives like the EU’s carbon market to be suspended, they should be fighting tooth and nail for financial assistance and taxation perks that will allow them to catch up, not drag others down with them.
Europe will inevitably have to exchange some dependencies for others, there is no sugar coating that reality. Oil suppliers will be substituted for battery, solar PV and raw material vendors.
But a wind turbine is an asset that you maintain and operate for decades. Electric vehicles can be sold on a second-hand market. Batteries can be recycled and used for other storage applications.
Oil and gas are good for one thing and one thing only: burning and converting into excess, planet-warming carbon dioxide and lung-choking air pollution. They go up in smoke and then you have to buy more.
The energy transition truly is the old parable of “teach a man to fish” in that regard.
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