Fewer people excluded from long-term unemployment are expected to seek social integration income (RIS) from CPAS centres in 2026 than initially estimated, with approximately one in three beneficiaries affected.
A new study conducted by KU Leuven looked into the effects of the reforms of the Belgian Government, led by Prime Minister Bart De Wever.
Federal Government figures show nearly half (46.5%) of those who lost unemployment benefits at the beginning of 2026 are now receiving RIS.
However, researchers say this first phase is not representative of the entire year. They estimate that between 27% and 42% of former unemployment beneficiaries will claim RIS in 2026.
Higher figures during the initial phase are partly attributed to the profile of those affected. The first wave included a significant proportion of single persons, who are more likely to qualify for RIS compared to couples.
As the proportion of single applicants declines in subsequent waves, demand for RIS is expected to decrease.
Additionally, individuals losing benefits in later phases are generally more employable, making them less likely to apply for RIS.
Researchers also note that stricter eligibility criteria for RIS, introduced on 1 March, play a role but have only a “limited” impact.
In absolute numbers, the effect of exclusions remains substantial, with approximately 52,000 individuals expected to turn to CPAS for support in 2026.
The researchers emphasise that these figures are estimates based on various scenarios and caution that final numbers will depend on labour market conditions and enforcement of new regulations.
