Euro area consumers reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations in March, while becoming more pessimistic about economic growth and slightly more upbeat about house prices.
The median rate of inflation people said they had experienced over the previous 12 months rose to 3.5% in March from 3.0% in February, , according to the European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey.
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 4.0% from 2.5%, while expectations for inflation three years ahead rose to 3.0% from 2.5%, the ECB revealed on Tuesday.
Inflation expectations for five years ahead edged up to 2.4% from 2.3%. Uncertainty around one-year inflation expectations increased in March.
Nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months were unchanged at 1.2%, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 4.1% from 3.5% — the highest level since May 2023.
Growth outlook weakens, unemployment expectations rise
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months fell to -2.1% in March from -0.9% in February, the ECB said.
The expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased to 11.3% from 10.8%.
Consumers also expected the price of their home to rise by 3.7% over the next 12 months, up slightly from 3.6% in February.
Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months rose to 4.9% from 4.7%.
The survey also recorded a rise in the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit over the past 12 months, reaching a level last seen in April 2024.
The net share expecting credit conditions to tighten over the next 12 months rose to the highest level since January 2024.
The findings are based on an online survey of around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries carried out between 5 and 30 March 2026, the ECB said.
