Negotiated pay growth across parts of the euro area is expected to ease in 2026 after a stronger 2025, according to the European Central Bank’s latest wage tracker update published on 6 May.
The ECB wage tracker — a tool that compiles pay rises set in collective bargaining agreements — points to negotiated wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 when one-off payments are spread out over time, based on agreements covering 51.3% of employees in the participating countries, the ECB said in a release on Wednesday.
For 2026, the same headline measure shows negotiated wage growth of 2.3%, based on coverage of 41.9% of employees.
A separate version of the tracker that does not smooth one-off payments, such as bonuses or inflation-compensation lump sums, shows negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
The tracker excluding one-off payments — intended to reflect more permanent base-pay increases — indicates negotiated wage growth easing from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.
How the 2026 wage path looks in the tracker
On a quarterly basis, the headline indicator for 2026 averages 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in both the third and fourth quarters, according to the ECB’s data.
The central bank said the upward path through 2026 is linked to the fading impact of large one-off payments made in 2024 but not in 2025.
Employee coverage in the wage tracker falls through 2026, standing at 45.6% in the first quarter and 38.8% by the fourth quarter.
The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker remains unchanged at December 2026, while data for Austria were expanded to start in January 2013.
