With just under a week until the first round of the 2022 French presidential election, the polls are beginning to paint a clearer picture of which candidates are likely to progress and face off in the second and final round of voting.
Emmanuel Macron, incumbent and leader of the centrist political party, La République en Marche, remains in the lead with 26% (-0.5). The challenging far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, leader of Rassemblement Nationale, is stable in second place at 21% (+1%). Despite gaining some ground last week, the left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has fallen by 0.5%. With 15.5%, Mélenchon still holds a comfortable lead over Eric Zemmour in third place.
If Macron (54%) faces off with Le Pen (46%) in the final round, the polls suggest he is still likely to win the presidency for a second term. If Mélenchon (42%) beats the odds and progresses into the second round of voting, Macron's margin for victory is higher.
France, Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll:Macron (EC-RE): 26% (-0.5) Le Pen (RN-ID): 21% (+1) Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 15.5% (-0.5) Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% Pécresse (LR-EPP): 9.5% … +/- vs. 29 March-1 April 2022 Fieldwork: 30 March-2 April 2022 Sample size: 1,963 ➤ https://t.co/Q3N85NE2nu pic.twitter.com/fM145rpL2O — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 2, 2022
However, Macron's campaign has been hit by the McKinsey scandal, which has benefitted Le Pen's polling numbers this week.
France, Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll:Presidential run-off election Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-5) Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+5) +/- vs. 23-26 Match 2022 Fieldwork: 30 March-2 April 2022 Sample size: 1,963 ➤ https://t.co/Q3N85NE2nu pic.twitter.com/kE80xncfhm — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 2, 2022