Euro area consumers thought inflation over the past year was higher in April, while their expectations for inflation three years ahead edged down, according to the European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey results.
The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 4.0% in April from 3.5% in March, the ECB said in its release on Monday.
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months were unchanged at 4.0%, while three-year-ahead expectations dipped to 2.9% from 3.0%.
Five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.4%.
Uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained “unchanged at an elevated level."
Lower-income respondents continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income respondents, while people aged 18–34 reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older age groups, according to the survey.
Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months fell to 0.8% in April from 1.2% in March.
Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 4.3% from 4.1%, while perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months rose to 5.3% from 5.1%.
Growth outlook weaker, jobless expectations slightly lower
Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative, with the average reading slipping to -2.2% in April from -2.1% in March, the ECB informed.
At the same time, the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead fell slightly to 11.2% from 11.3%, while consumers put the perceived current unemployment rate at 10.5%.
Lower-income households expected a higher unemployment rate (13.3%) than higher-income households (9.4%).
Among people who were unemployed, the expected probability of finding a job over the next three months rose to 32.1% in April from 30.1% in January.
Among those in work, the expected probability of losing a job over the next three months increased to 8.8% from 8.2% over the same period.
Consumers’ expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months were unchanged at 3.7%, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time were also unchanged at 4.9%.
The net share of households reporting tightening access to credit over the previous 12 months rose to the highest level since February 2024, while the net share expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months reached the highest level since October 2023.
The survey’s fieldwork ran from 2 April to 4 May 2026 and covered around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries.
