Ukraine war: Is the war winnable?

Ukraine war: Is the war winnable?
Borodanka, after the Russian retreat, credit: EU

While EU and the US are sending more weapons to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s invasion, the Russian minister of foreign affairs tried in an interview on Monday to deflect blame for the war and frighten those who are supporting Ukraine.

In an interview on Russian TV, Sergej Lavrov claimed that Ukraine risks provoking a third world war and that NATO in practise has already started a war against Russia.In fact, NATO had done everything to avoid direct confrontation with Russia and rejected Ukrainian requests for a no-fly zone to prevent air craft bombings of the country.

The US and other countries supporting Ukraine have not yet re-opened their embassies in Kyiv. Their reluctance to provide advanced and long-range weapons to Ukraine was broken only recently after Ukraine stood its ground and succeeded in repelling the Russian troops in the Kyiv region. It has however paid a high price in civilian losses, millions of displaced persons and refugees, and the destruction of its infrastructure.

The American ministers of foreign affairs and defence ministers travelled to Poland on Saturday and took the train to Kyiv on the following day where they met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to express US’s solidarity with Ukraine and pledge more military support.

"In terms of Russia’s war aims, Russia has already failed and Ukraine has already succeeded,” secretary of state Antony Blinken said.  Secretary of defence Lloyd Austin said that the focus of their meeting was to talk about the things that would “enable us to win the current fight and also build for tomorrow”.

When European Council President Charles Michel visited Ukraine last week, he also promised that the EU will do everything possible to support Ukraine and to make sure that it will win the war.

In the current situation the war seems to be transformed into a war of attrition, with Russia attacking the Donbass region against re-armed Ukrainian forces. It might end when Russia will claim some “victory” for its annual 9th May Victory Day next week but it might also continue – no military expert knows.

To defeat a power like Russia which possesses nuclear weapons and “win” the war is an insurmountable task but to defend itself and inflict such losses on Russia that it will reconsider its war objectives and agree to a political solution is doable.

Victory Day commemorates the surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945 which was made possible by the joint efforts and sacrifices of Soviet Union and the other Allied Powers. By its unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine and denying its rights to national self-determination under false pretexts, Russia has forgotten its own war against Nazi Germany and is distorting history.

M. Apelblat

The Brussels Times


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