Negotiated wage growth in euro area collective bargaining agreements is running at 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, according to updated figures from the European Central Bank.
The ECB said on Wednesday that its wage tracker — which compiles information from active collective bargaining agreements in nine euro area countries — has been updated to include wage agreements signed up to the first week of July 2026, with its forward-looking horizon extended to the end of March 2027.
Negotiated wage pressures with “smoothed” one-off payments, such as bonuses or back-dated pay spread over 12 months, were estimated at 2.3% for 2026, based on coverage of 44.3% of employees in participating countries.
For the first quarter of 2027, the same measure showed negotiated wage pressures of 2.7%, based on 28.4% employee coverage.
What the tracker measures
The ECB said the latest update was broadly unchanged compared with its June 2026 release, with new agreements not materially altering the overall assessment for 2026.
A separate version of the tracker that includes one-off payments without smoothing put negotiated wage growth at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027.
A measure excluding one-off payments entirely — intended to reflect more permanent pay rises — also stood at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027.
The ECB said its “headline” wage tracker averaged 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in both the third and fourth quarters.
Employee coverage in the tracker was 47.0% in the first quarter of 2026, 45.7% in the second quarter, 42.5% in the third quarter and 42.0% in the fourth quarter, falling to 28.4% in the first quarter of 2027.
