The European Union is unlikely to achieve strategic autonomy and independently sustain high-intensity military operations by 2030, despite ambitious plans and a sharp rise in defence spending, the European Court of Auditors warned on Thursday.
In a report published in Luxembourg, the court said major obstacles remain, including fragmented national systems, industrial bottlenecks, slow political co-ordination and continued reliance on the United States.
The EU has launched several initiatives to help Member States co-operate more closely and pool defence efforts, but the 2030 readiness target will be difficult to meet, the auditors said.
Lack of an effective top-down process
“It is essential to make the most of new opportunities and to take existing risks into account,” said Marek Opioła, the court member responsible for the audit.
Defence spending by the 27 Member States is expected to have risen by nearly 80% between 2020 and 2025. However, planning still largely follows a bottom-up model, with each country defining its own needs.
The court warned that the lack of an effective top-down process at EU level, combined with insufficient co-ordination between European and national funding streams, could lead to fragmented investment, duplication and capability gaps.
Examples of successful cooperation: Belgium-Netherlands
It said larger sums, if poorly targeted, could create bottlenecks in raw materials, critical components and skilled labour.
According to the report, the funding available may also fall short of agreed priorities, particularly in military mobility.
The court further warned that increased reliance on national defence spending and EU-backed loans could undermine budget sustainability by slowing the reduction of public debt and putting pressure on the EU budget.
The report also highlighted successful examples of co-operation among smaller groups of countries, including Belgian-Dutch naval co-operation.
