The Swedish people woke up on Monday morning after a nail-biting vote count without knowing if the incumbent center-right coalition government will be replaced by the center-left opposition or by a new combination of parties across the current political bloc lines.
Directly after the polling stations were closed the first exit poll based on 13,700 voters from a representative sample of stations showed a lead for the opposition. During the night, the figures fluctuated with neither bloc prepared to declare victory too early or, as a Swedish proverb says, ‘sell the skin before the bear is shot’.
With 95 % % of polling stations counted, the center-left opposition bloc led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson hold the lead and even increased it to 176 to 173 in the 349 seated Parliament (Riksdagen) against the government coalition led by Moderate Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Compared to the elections in 2022, the outcome was a reverse in fortunes.
However, the gap between the blocs is only 0.45 percentage points or 28,600 votes. The final outcome will be known after Wednesday when the remaining votes from uncounted polling stations and postal votes have been counted. Compared to the previous two elections, voter turnout continued to decrease and is estimated to about 80 %.
Within the blocs there were significant changes. The leading opposition party in the ‘Red-Green’ bloc, the Social Democrat Party, received 28,1% (-2,3% compared to 2022), the lowest percentage ever in elections. It is followed by the Leftist Party with 8,2% (+1,5), the Center Party with 7,1% (+0,3) and the Green Party with 6,1% (+1,0).
Among the government parties, the Moderates remained the biggest party with 19,9% of the votes (+0,8), followed by the Sweden Democrats with 17,6% (-3,0), the Christian Democrats with 6,2% (+0,9) and the Liberals with 5,4% (+0,8).
The two bloc leaders were cautious in their comments about forming a new government.
"We have to wait for the final election result now. Every single vote cast must be counted," said Magdalena Andersson. The Leftist Party and the Center Party disagree on economic issues and do not get along. During the election campaign, she did not commit to include the Leftist Party in a new government and expected that it would support her from the outside.
After the Leftist Party became the second biggest party in the ‘Red-Green’ bloc she will have no choice but to accept it as an equal partner. The party is led by a woman, Nooshi Dadgostar, born in Sweden to political refugees from Iran. During the election campaign, the Leftist Party had to exclude candidates who had expressed antisemitic views on social media.
"This election result could lead to a complicated government formation process,” said Ulf Kristersson. It might take time, but we are in no rush. Getting it right is more important than speed.” His party became the biggest party in the center-right coalition, bypassing the Sweden Democrats with a wide margin.
When Kristersson formed his government in 2022, the anti-migrant and populist Sweden Democrats were formally kept outside the government but strongly influenced its policy from the outside through an agreement between all four parties (the Tidö agreement). After four years of governing together, the Sweden Democrats expected to become a member of a new government with minister posts.
The government has managed to reduce gang-related death shootings but crime remained one of the main election issues. As regards migration, the government adopted the proposals of the Sweden Democrats led by Jimmie Åkesson. This has resulted in the forced returns of migrants, including deportation of young adults even though their families have been allowed to stay.
At the televised party leader debate on Friday, Åkesson added that he does not support integration. "Integration—where these people are supposed to adapt to Swedish society—is not a matter of money; it is about demands," he said. "The tap for benefits needs to be tightened."
Dadgostar had a ready answer to the Tidö parties. "They let hate into this country and pit people against one another. You could see it throughout the debate—how they blame people who, just like me, have black hair. Ulf Kristersson blames the problems on everyone and everything else—on the opposition and on immigrants.”
The most controversial statement, by Åkesson’s own words, was his claim that the elections could be the first ones where Muslim immigrants (voting for the opposition) decides the outcome of a parliamentary election.
"Ordinary Muslims who go to mosques are not integrated. Ordinary Muslims voting in a Swedish election are a problem. That is a terrible statement," replied Green Party leader Amanda Lind.
The party inside the incumbent government which has most reason to celebrate, irrespective of the outcome of government negotiations, is the Liberals, led by Simona Mohamsson, currently Education and Integration minister. Against all odds, the party managed to pass the threshold of 4 %. She arrived in Sweden as a child with Palestinian-Lebanese parents.
Her successful integration in Sweden she did not credit to any government, she said at the election debate, but to her father who encouraged her to study, learn Swedish, and embrace Swedish values. During another debate in August, she wore a David Shield to protest against the rising antisemitism in Sweden.
