Negotiated wage growth across nine euro area countries is running at 2.2% on average in 2026, while wage agreements signed so far point to rates of 2.7% to 2.8% in the first half of 2027.
The update covers active collective bargaining agreements signed up to the end of August 2026 and extends the tracker’s forward-looking horizon to the end of June 2027, the European Central Bank announced on Wednesday.
The European Central Bank’s wage tracker — a measure based on pay deals struck between employers and unions — shows negotiated wage pressures of 2.2% in 2026 when one-off payments are “smoothed” over time, based on employee coverage of 46.9%.
For early 2027, the tracker puts negotiated wage growth at 2.7% in the first quarter and 2.8% in the second quarter, based on coverage of 32.5% and 25.1% respectively.
Lower readings in the first half of 2026 reflected the effect of one-off payments that were made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated the following year, with those effects expected to fade fully in the second half of 2026.
How much of the workforce is covered?
Employee coverage — the share of workers whose pay deals are captured by the tracker — drops from 46.9% in 2026 to 32.5% in the first quarter of 2027 and 25.1% in the second quarter.
Coverage is expected to rise over time as more wage agreements for 2027 are signed.
Compared with the July 2026 release, the tracker with smoothed one-off payments was revised down slightly for 2026, while the headline indicator was broadly unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
A version of the tracker that does not smooth one-off payments slowed to 2.6% in 2026 from 3.0% in 2025, while the indicator excluding one-off payments averaged 2.6% in 2026.
