Minimum wages rise across EU, but energy shock threatens future growth

Minimum wages rise across EU, but energy shock threatens future growth
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Job quality across the EU has improved over the past decade, with progress in pay, job security and working time, according to the European Commission’s 2026 European Employment and Social Outlook report.

Job quality still varies widely between countries, sectors and occupations, with higher-quality jobs more common in information and communication, finance and insurance, public administration, and professional, scientific and technical activities, according to the report, the Commission informed on Tuesday.

Lower-quality jobs were more often found in accommodation and food services, administrative and support services, and some lower-skilled service roles.

Labour shortages were described as more pronounced in poorer-quality jobs, with the Commission linking this to factors such as lower pay, less secure employment and more atypical hours.

The report also described pressures on the labour market from slowing employment growth, weak productivity growth and high energy prices affecting household incomes.

Minimum wages, productivity and the impact of AI

Wages can keep rising only if companies become more productive, the report said, adding that higher wages — especially minimum wages — can encourage firms to invest and innovate rather than compete on low labour costs.

Minimum wages have increased since the EU Minimum Wages Directive was adopted, particularly in member states with lower wage levels and more minimum-wage earners, the Commission said.

Artificial intelligence could raise productivity and job quality by shifting workers towards higher-value tasks and supporting new skills, but its effects will depend on how it is introduced and governed.

The report noted that AI could put pressure on labour demand in some entry-level and routine jobs, and may affect wages and working conditions, while emerging research cited in the report suggests heavy reliance on automated tools could weaken critical thinking and increase the need for human supervision.

The EU labour market remained “resilient” in 2025, with an employment rate of 76.1% and unemployment at 6%.

For 2026, the Commission expects the energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East to slow employment growth, with around 440,000 fewer jobs expected to be created, while employers are forecast to retain workers.

Real wages in 2026 are expected to be 1.4% above pre-Covid-19 levels after recovering losses experienced in 2022 and 2023 in most member states.

A Quality Jobs Act will be presented later this year following a second-stage consultation with EU social partners.


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