With global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, urgent and stringent cuts to greenhouse emissions are needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century, according to a new report published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP).
The UNEP Emissions Gap Reports track progress, or rather the lack of it, in limiting global warming well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement. Its 7th report, the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, is published ahead of the 2026 UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), scheduled to take place from November 9 to 20 in Antalya, Türkiye.
Compared to the report five years ago, ahead of COP26 in Glasgow, the situation has deteriorated until a ‘point of return’ or rather ‘a point of no return’ because of the failure of the climate change conferences to agree on effective measures to phase out greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The situation was already dire then but the forecasts in the report were still optimistic. Net-zero pledges could bring the predicted global temperature rise to 2.2°C and head off the most-catastrophic impacts of climate change. This time is the report is all about ‘overshoot’ - the inevitability that average temperatures will exceed the climate target before cooling down – if effective and drastic measures are taken to reduce the emissions.
The new report looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance.
To get onto this pathway, GHG emissions would have to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. By contrast, the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
"Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message on the report.
“The emissions gap is now a leadership gap. And the world is running out of time and excuses to close it. Governments must go much further and faster. Accelerate clean energy and electrification across every sector. Adopt credible roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels – with clear timelines and protection for affected workers and communities.
Invest in grids and storage. Improve energy efficiency. Cut methane emissions. Halt and reverse deforestation. The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5-degree limit, and the consequences are already devastating."
On a positive note, the report finds that there are more opportunities than ever to accelerate action. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has boomed, total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected and climate policies have cut emissions in many places.
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is possible.
“We have a wealth of success stories showing that emissions can be cut quickly. It is now up to nations to urgently put in place policies that spark fast, deep and sustained emissions reductions, and put the world on track for a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies.”
The report finds that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter. Even if all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6°C.
These outcomes are worse than last year’s projections due to the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since last year’s report have made a negligible difference for these projections. GHG emissions need to be cut by 18% by 2030 and by 45% by 2035 but current pledges only result in much lower cuts.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets are achieved, global warming would only be limited to 2.1°C in this century. Without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7 to 1.8°C will quickly become impossible. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C.
In addition, the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario creates a need for the removal from the atmosphere and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 (equivalent to around eight years of 2024’s global CO2 emissions) over the course of this century. However, socioeconomic and technological challenges make the chances of achieving this uncertain.
The largest GHG emitters and the fossil fuels producers must come on board to reverse the current catastrophic trajectory. The report lists China as the world's largest polluter (ca 30 % of total global emissions), followed by the US, an outlier among industrialized nations because its emissions have surged significantly during the Trump administration.
