Americans will be voting in the US midterm elections on Tuesday as control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate are at stake in an election that is broadly seen as a referendum on Donald Trump and his presidency.

The House and Senate are currently held by Republicans, but according to recent polling, Democrats are expected to win at least one, but potentially both bodies of Congress as President Trump's approval rating is at an all-time low. With such an important election taking place, Americans abroad and in Belgium are also casting their votes.

“The future of American democracy is at stake,” Robin De Wouters, the chair of Democrats Abroad in Belgium, told The Brussels Times. “We've seen Trump and his administration attack every aspect of American society and governments."

While Americans living abroad might feel that their vote is insignificant, international voters have had demonstrable impact on American elections in the past.

As De Wouters pointed out, in the 2020 presidential election, about 900,000 Americans voted from abroad. At the time, the states of Arizona and Georgia went to Democratic candidate Joe Biden by a margin of victory that was smaller than their number of international voters.

Arizona counted 18,435 ballots from abroad, while Georgia counted 18,475, while Biden won in these states by 10,457 and 11,779 votes respectively.

“We can safely say that these states were won in parts, at least, thanks to Georgians and Arizonians abroad,” De Wouters said.

The polls: cautiously optimistic

According to polls, Democrats are expected to take the house, though the senate could be a larger challenge. “The House seems like an absolute given that it will be a Democratic majority,” De Wouters, said, noting the conservative estimate of a 15 to 30 seat pickup for the Democrats.

However, for the Senate, the race is a tougher battle, with Democrats needing to net four seats in the midterms to gain control. But even if Democrats regain the House but fail to secure the Senate, “it’ll still be seen as a win” for Democrats, De Wouters said, as it would give them the ability to put a “a real check on Trump's doings and mishandlings of really everything in the next few years.”

Regardless, De Wouters remains cautious in his optimism. “We're obviously very worried about polls,” he said, “Polls have misled in the past, they've been wrong.”

Bianca Baumler, a US citizen and EU public diplomacy consultant, shared these concerns. “I don't want to have the same disappointment I had when Trump won in the past. So I am also cautious, but it will definitely be better than two years ago.”

For Baumler, the stakes of the election are clear, though its impact differs for those living in the US and those living abroad. For Brussels policymakers, the results aren’t expected to be significant. “Trump will remain president,” she said.

For Americans living in the US, however, the results may have a drastic outcome. "Millions of people are losing their health care," she said, "and already the fact that not everyone has health care is quite shocking to Europeans."

Regardless of whether one lives in the US or abroad, the results are important. "If one or both houses are won back, it will just make it much, much more difficult for Trump to do what he has been doing," Baumler said.

However, while the election might not have important policy outcomes, a Democratic victory in the midterms could be important symbolically for both Europeans and Americans, as they would show that Trump's actions "will not be supported by the majority of Americans," she said.

What’s ahead

As of last Friday (when early voting ended in most US states), roughly 40 million Americans had already cast their ballots, and for any readers thinking to say up to watch the results, they should be warned that only some results will be published by 03:00-04:00.

“It's not like a presidential election,” De Wouters said, where results will be published state by state. All results are expected by Wednesday night, though some races may be too close to call.

The Democrats Abroad of Belgium will be hosting two events in Brussels and Ghent on Wednesday 4 November.

“Hopefully, we’ll be celebrating,” De Wouters said, though he noted that “we'll be drinking either way.”