Global oil demand has exceeded pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022, according to figures published on Tuesday by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The group forecasts even further growth in demand this year, driven by the Chinese economy.
The statistics appear to show that, despite efforts to reduce climate change, the consumption of oil is growing. In the final quarter of 2022, the global demand for oil surpassed 100 million barrels per day (mb/d), rising to 101.17 mb/d, higher than average demand registered in 2019 (99.76 mb/d).
Some analysts now warn that carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will continue to rise until around 2025, only falling after this point.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the global demand for oil, and thereby carbon emissions, dropped to record lows due to a slump in economic activity caused by pandemic restrictions. In 2020, demand fell to a low of around 91 mb/d, before rising to 97 mb/d in 2021, and back up to 100 mb/d in 2022, following a successful global economic recovery.
Against more conservative previous estimates, OPEC has now revised its forecast upwards for 2023, to an expected 101.87 mb/d. The demand for oil has only accelerated at the start of this year, increasing by an average of 100,000 barrels per day in January.
China fuels demand
The reopening of the Chinese economy, undoubtedly, has been one of the largest driving forces behind an uptake in the demand for oil.
China is the single largest net importer of crude oil in the world. In 2021, the nation imported over 10.5 million barrels of crude, mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. Oil consumption from the Middle East and other Asian countries has also driven demand, OPEC says.
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In December, China abandoned most of its anti-Covid measures in a bid to squash social unrest and kickstart its economy which was hampered by sporadic lockdowns and reduced consumption. The OPEC cartel believes that the end of these measures has significantly boosted demand, which will only increase this year.
In other developed countries, growth in demand for oil should slow down this year following record growth. In OECD nations, average demand growth should account for 0.4 mb/d in 2023, down from 1.3mb/d in 2022, dipping back down to just below pre-pandemic levels.
OPEC says that the growth in demand for oil is largely driven by the Americas, while the European and Asia-Pacific oil markets are set to stagnate.
