The global economy is showing signs of slight improvement, according to the latest growth data update released on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The institution now anticipates growth to be slightly better in 2023 and to remain stable in 2024. It is expected to be 3% in 2023, up from 2.8% at its previous estimate in April, and to remain at the same level in 2024, unchanged from the previous estimate.
"Our projection for this year is improving and inflation is coming down, which is good news," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP, "but we are not out of the woods yet and growth remains weak, not least because of a marked slowdown in advanced economies."
Most of the advanced economies, as well as the main emerging countries, appear to be performing better than the IMF had previously feared, despite a monetary policy that is now restrictive almost everywhere to combat inflation that remains "stubbornly high".
The IMF is expecting a slight improvement on this front, too, between now and the end of the year, with inflation expected to reach 6.8% worldwide by the end of the year (0.2 percentage points lower than forecast in April).
But inflation is also lasting longer: by the end of 2024, it should still be at 5.2%, whereas in March the institution was expecting it to be 0.3 percentage points lower.
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"The slowdown we are seeing is largely due to the easing of prices in China, particularly in industry in the second quarter," Gourinchas added.
The IMF insists on the need for further monetary tightening to bring inflation back towards its target, even if this has an impact on the economy, which has so far been largely more resilient than expected, particularly in emerging countries.
