Behind the Scenes: What weighs on the minds of EU officials

BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.

Green Deal 2.0?

The current European Commission and Parliament have dedicated most of their effort and time to passing the Green Deal and its various rules and regulations into law. It is by far the defining policy of this current administration.

But there are still parts of it that still need to be wound up. Building renovation rules, legislative tweaks prompted by Russia’s war on Ukraine and transport regulations still need to be given a final rubber stamp.

Then there is the small matter of what comes next. The Green Deal takes Europe up to 2030 then there is a massive gap to 2050 when climate neutrality is supposed to kick in. A discussion about what happens in those twenty years is actually overdue.

Clean energy laws, transport regulations, biodiversity measures, infrastructure planning and much more besides will all have to be upgraded yet again in order to make the leap to mid-century. It will arrive sooner rather than later.

So can the current Commission generate enough political power to get a 2040 target on the books before its mandate expires next year? Or will that have to wait until a new executive is formed towards the end of 2024? 

Privately, some EU officials think that Ursula von der Leyen should cash in now and commit herself or her successor to working on the next big benchmark in the coming five years. It is a long shot but not impossible.

Proof of the pudding in the eating

In the coming months it is going to be crunch time for many of the EU’s newest and most important legislative initiatives, as deadlines come and go.

Online platforms are now firmly within the window under the new Digital Markets Act (DMA) in which they must identify themselves as gatekeepers. As these big tech firms must be compliant by May 2024, they only have a short time to put their hands up.

National governments are expected to submit detailed energy and climate plans that show how they will contribute to the EU’s overall targets like clean energy deployment and energy efficiency improvements. 

The deadline has already passed and some countries have still yet to turn in their homework. The Commission will spend the rest of this year grading their efforts before issuing recommendations early next year.

Targets and benchmarks are all well and good but governments are the ones that will have to implement them. Plenty of Commission officials are worried that the sums will not add up no matter how much extra funding is promised or found down the back of the sofa.

According to one top official, the usual practice of promising governments more support from the European Investment Bank might not be enough this time. They told Behind the Scenes that the Commision might have to get more creative.

There will also be a step into the unknown for the EU in October when the now infamous ‘carbon border adjustment mechanism’ or CBAM starts to take effect. The new policy will charge importers fees for certain goods if they are not manufactured in a green way.

At first, importers are only going to have to monitor and report their goods and wares as part of a ‘soft opening’ of sorts for CBAM. No charges will be levied while the transition phase is underway.

There will be stumbling blocks. Poland lodged a legal challenge this week against CBAM, while trading partners like India and China are watching with interest. A formal complaint at World Trade Organisation level cannot be ruled out.

Trade and climate officials insist that the border tax is on firm legal footing but there are private worries that some larger nations might challenge it or frustrate other joint programmes if they are not granted exemptions.

This is the problem with adding another moving part to an already complex piece of machinery.

Who’s going to be the new boss?

In just under a year, the EU elections will be done and the result known. This will dictate who is appointed as president of the Commission, as the biggest political party is supposed to be given first shot at naming a candidate.

At least that is how it is supposed to function. Last time, the European Council of prime ministers and presidents ignored that plan and gave the job to the current Commission boss, Ursula von der Leyen.

Whether they resort to backroom chats and sly deals this time will probably depend on which names emerge as frontrunners for the job. Von der Leyen is likely going to give us more clues about her intentions in September, when she delivers her annual State of the Union speech.

If she decides against a second term, be it to devote all her efforts towards a run at the NATO top job next year or for personal reasons, it will divert the EU ship into uncharted and possibly choppy waters.

Her political party, the EPP, will have to decide who to name as their Spitzenkandidat, all the while weighing up the electability of that candidate when it comes to the Council vote. Remember that last time the EPP’s pick, Manfred Weber, was unceremoniously ejected out of contention because the most powerful leaders simply did not want to put him in the hot seat. 

The European Parliament is predicted to swing further towards the right, so the confirmation vote by MEPs, which von der Leyen only narrowly passed in 2019, will perhaps be an even tougher test next year.

That is not to mention the 26 hearings and committee votes that will be needed to approve the eventual president-elect’s team of Commissioners. It is always a bit of a rough ride with necessary sacrifices needed to assert dominance but 2024’s process could well be the nastiest and longest-lasting yet.

Various officials that Behind the Scenes has spoken to over the years have revealed how many of them were left reeling by the changes made between the last Commission, headed by Jean-Claude Juncker, and this one.

Some fear that the coming change will be even more whiplash-inducing.

All of this is very much weighing on officials and diplomats alike, who wonder whether the next 10 or so months of remaining time left under the current administration might well be a last chance to get meaningful legislation on the docket, due to the unpredictability of what lies ahead.

BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.