Global trade is set to shrink by about 5% this year, according to a new report released on Monday by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The slump is largely attributable to rising interest rates and tensions between the US and China, according to the Paris-based body, which does not envisage any improvement for the year ahead.
By the end of December, the total value of trade in goods and services is expected to reach $30.7 trillion (over €28.5 trillion), based on UNCTAD's estimates. Last year saw global trade reach a record level of $32.2 trillion.
The decline observed this year stems chiefly from a contraction in the trade in goods, which fell by 8%. On the other hand, the value of trade in services went up by 7 %.
UNCTAD's researchers predict that the future of global trade remains exceedingly uncertain. The outlook for 2024 is pessimistic, they say, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, high levels of debt, and widespread economic vulnerability.
