With general elections just a few days away, tensions are escalating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) amid practical organisational challenges, opposition scepticism and clashes in the east.
On 20 December, nearly 44 million voters, out of a population of around 100 million, will elect their president, along with national and provincial legislators, and municipal councillors. This is a real challenge in a country of 2.3 million km2 — 80 times the size of Belgium — largely devoid of infrastructure.
More than 100,000 candidates are running for office at the four levels, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (Ceni), including 22 who are vying to become president.
Divided opposition
The official campaign started on 19 November with 26 candidates, including incumbent President Felix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, aged 60, who is seeking a second five-year term.
However, four opposition candidates have since withdrawn in favour of wealthy businessman and former governor of the mining province of Katanga, Moïse Katumbi Chapwe, 58, who is actively conducting meetings across the country.
The opposition remains divided with the prospect of a single candidate appearing impossible, even though this is deemed necessary by many to challenge the incumbent president.
The remaining competitors include Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dr. Denis Mukwege Mukengere, 68, who received the award for his work with rape victims, and Martin Fayulu Madidi, 67, unsuccessful candidate in the 2018 presidential election.
'Little trust' in the electoral process
In the absence of reliable polls, predictions are risky. The Ceni has given assurances of “transparency,” but candidates have called on voters to be “vigilant.”
While taking part in the electoral process – except for the camp of past president Joseph Kabila (2001 – 2018), which is boycotting the election – they fear the results announced by the Ceni will not reflect the real outcome of the ballot.
The opposition has criticised the composition of the Ceni and the Constitutional Court, accusing the authorities of stuffing them with their supporters, and have demanded – in vain – a new audit of the electoral register.
Political analyst Alain de Georges Shukrani told French news agency AFP that opposition parties, “believe the register has been tampered with” and “there is very little trust in the process.”
The cancellation of an EU observer mission in late November after it was not granted permission to deploy its satellite transmission tools, has added to the suspicion.
Escalating violence in the east
De Georges Shukrani also points out that the elections are being held “in a poisoned atmosphere due to the military situation in the east.”
The Belgian newspaper ‘La Libre Belgique’ quoted political scientist and University of Liège professor Bob Kabamba, who recently returned from the DRC, as saying that “it is impossible to maintain the electoral calendar.”
For three decades, the region has been experiencing escalating armed violence, peaking in the last two years with the resurgence of the M23, a rebellion supported by Rwanda that occupies part of the eastern province of North Kivu.
This situation exacerbates the traditional divide between the western and eastern parts of the vast country. Shukrani believes there is a “breakdown in national cohesion, a rise in tribalism, and hate speech" and divisive rhetoric.
Race against time
Violence in the ongoing presidential campaign has been relatively contained, with one death reported in a confrontation between opposition and government supporters and six deaths at a Tshisekedi rally.
From a technical perspective, the Ceni faces a race against time to distribute electronic machines, ballots, and other voting materials produced in Asia. Thousands of voter cards need to be reissued due to wear and tear.
Panic set in last week when a letter from the Ceni requesting four Antonov An-26 aircraft and ten helicopters to transport the voting materials leaked on social media.
In a subsequent radio interview with private station Top Congo, Ceni president Denis Kadima Kazadi said he remained optimistic about the 20 December election date.
