BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
2024 is nearly here and it is set to be another important year for the European Union and its geopolitical ambitions. The Union will face a number of challenges.
This year was a challenging one for Brussels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the knock-on effects it has unleashed have continued to make life difficult for the EU institutions. Other global factors have also caused sleepless nights.
As we say goodbye to 2023 and usher in 2024, there are already plenty of complex issues lying in wait, some old, some continuing. Here are some of the main ones that could cause headaches for EU leaders next year.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
A new boss?
In June, EU voters will decide who represents them in the European Parliament. The result of that Union-wide ballot should also determine who leads the European Commission for the next five years. Or will it?
As per Ursula von der Leyen’s promise from four-and-a-half years ago and subsequent assurances, the biggest political group after the vote should be given the right to nominate their lead candidate for the top job.
The Spitzenkandidat process is supposed to shore up that democratic link between the vote and who is in charge of the EU’s executive branch. It worked in 2014 but was shelved by government leaders in 2019.
If von der Leyen announces as expected that she will seek another term and her EPP group secure top spot in the Parliament again, then Spitzenkandidat will ostensibly be resurrected next year. Even if it is just democracy in action in name only.
But it could all go pear-shaped. Maybe von der Leyen does not want another five years of living in her Berlaymont apartment. Maybe the EPP won’t get top spot, polls have been wrong many times before.
Or maybe she will run, the EPP will win but leaders won’t sign off on her candidacy. Remember that Viktor Orban – among others – has many axes to grind.
He might have walked off for a toilet break when the non-crucial issue of starting Ukraine membership talks was on the docket but there is zero chance that he will do the same when the Commission job is at stake.
Even when a new president is confirmed (the Parliament also has to vote with a majority to give the green light), then there will be the hearings of all 26 Commissioner picks.
Talking to one EU official last week, Behind the Scenes was told that there are genuine fears that a full Commission might not be in place until 2025. Worrying indeed, given the number of challenges we are supposed to be in the middle of addressing.
Walking the walk
The EU loves to set targets. Whether it’s electric vehicle chargers, recycling rates, renewable energy or industrial output, Brussels more often than not gauges success this way.
The first half of this decade has largely been about designing new benchmarks, hashing them out behind closed doors and writing them into law. Compromises, fudges and missed opportunities have been the hallmark of the early 2020s.
Next year will be the first real year that will not be about setting targets but starting to meet them. Many of the EU’s big goals are based around 2030. Emissions have to be cut by a certain amount, supply chains have to be aligned and so on.
If the work is not done now, it might never be. That is why implementation will be one of the words of the year.
We already had a taste of it at the end of 2023. The European Commission has gone through energy and climate plans submitted by national governments, to see whether policies will add up to what is needed from those 2030 targets.
Many of those plans are insufficient and will have to be reassessed. Whether by carrot or stick, changes will have to be made.
Not just in climate either. All those headline digital policies like the digital markets and services acts are all coming into focus.
Europe’s place in the world
Those digital laws will show whether the EU really is the rulemaker that it aspires to be, rather than a ruletaker. With GDPR, Brussels showed that it has the chops to set globally-influential standards.
It is attempting the same with the DMA and DSA. 2024 will reveal whether those efforts are paying off.
In December, the EU Commission announced an inquest into Elon Musk’s Twitter/X platform, after measuring the social media giant against these new standards.
Will the EU hold firm and demand changes from Musk’s company or blink if the billionaire threatens to shut up shop in the bloc, like a kid taking his football home with him? It will be fascinating to watch.
A similar dynamic is at play in other sectors. Ongoing inquests into Chinese electric vehicles and biodiesel imports will be a litmus test for the EU’s geopolitical trade policies.
Talking of tests: the EU has tried to reinvigorate its enlargement process. Talks should open with Moldova and Ukraine but don’t forget about other countries in the membership queue.
Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia have all made great strides. Ukraine is maybe decades away from membership, whereas these nations are much closer to the the front door. Brussels will have to manage those expectations.
Then there is the small matter of the US election in November. Behind the Scenes is loath to include this as one of the main issues affecting Europe next year but that is unfortunately the world we live in.
If Joe Biden secures reelection then that will be a massive headache avoided. But if Donald Trump or another candidate that wants to rip up all the good done over the last four years gets the nod? Problematic to say the least.
That is just the tip of the iceberg. 2024 will be crammed full of other comings and goings, strange happenings and a series of unfortunate events. Behind the Scenes will be there to lift the lid on at least some of them.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
