With birth rate projections falling, the number of teachers is expected to decrease in the coming years in the French-speaking Community of Belgium.
This is according to calculations made by the Centre for Regional Economics and Economic Policy Research at UNamur (Cerpe), in a report published in collaboration with the General Teaching Administration and cited in Le Soir on Monday.
The declining birth rate is already impacting nursery school attendance and is now extending to primary schools, with secondary schools soon to be affected.
In 2023, the French Community had 116,324 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions in education: 100,672 in compulsory education (both mainstream and special education) and 15,652 in non-compulsory sectors, which includes PMS centres, environmental education centres, and higher education outside universities.
However, according to the calculation model used by the researchers (which does not consider the reform of initial teacher training or measures announced by the new government), the number of FTE positions will decrease to 113,941 by the end of 2029, representing a reduction of 2,383 teachers.
The study indicates that the reduction in teaching staff will be most pronounced in the younger age groups. Here, there will be 459 fewer nursery school teachers and 1,765 fewer primary school teachers, while secondary education will see little change and higher education will experience a slight increase in the number of teachers.
This can be explained by birth rate projections. "The population attending nursery schools will decrease until 2027, stabilise in 2028, and increase in 2029. The primary school population will decrease throughout the period, while the secondary school population will increase in 2023 and 2024, stabilise in 2025, and decrease thereafter," the researchers argue.
