As Europe is forced to question the foundation of security alliances that have been the architecture of a historic period of peacetime, the rush to rearm is throwing previous budget plans to the wind.
Last week started with Belgium's new Defence Minister announcing a new model for national service. Though voluntary, it would help change the perception that Belgium doesn't take its military seriously. Then again, the army union was quick to note that the plan will require substantial funding to become a success. That's not easy when you have a growing budget deficit (4.6% 0f GDP at the end of 2024) that already has EU regulators breathing down our neck.
De Wever announced today that he will speed up the spending increase to get the defence budget to 2% of GDP by summer. The previous target was to reach this threshold by 2029. It means finding an extra €4 billion in a matter of months, well before the planned reforms deliver the projected returns.
To make up the shortfall, a "Defence Fund" has been posited, which will channel State-owned assets (such as shares in BNP Paribas and Belfius banks) towards defence spending. Some holdings might also be sold to free up capital. But although this might provide a short-term capital injection, the Defence Minister has acknowledged that a longer-term enlargement of the defence budget will be needed.
And all this at a time when Belgium is one of the EU's worst economic performers, currently subject to an excessive debt procedure that demands economies of around €7 billion/year for the next four years. Fortunately for the government, bulking up defence capacities has trumped the savings imperatives, and the Commission announced on Tuesday that defence investments won't be part of the budget targets (for four years).
But De Wever's ambitions will still come up against an ailing economy and coalition partners fiercely protective of social security provisions. The Foreign Affairs Minister has said that the Prime Minister's spending boost is "near impossible" and "risks weakening our social and economic cohesion." Even before De Wever took office, a succession of strikes highlighted the general antipathy towards a government determined to trim spending on pensions and unemployment.
So although his intentions might be justified, De Wever will have a hard time putting his money where his mouth is.
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