Falling birthrates in Belgium and other European countries are creating a “catastrophic and tectonic” demographic crisis which needs urgent remedies, according to Brussels-based author Giles Merritt.
The number of children born in Belgium has been decreasing for decades. Last year saw the lowest number since the Second World War with 110,198 births. The fertility rate, or average number of children per woman, decreased to 1.47 in 2023, down from 1.53 the previous year.
All European countries are now below the ‘replacement rate’ of 2.1 children per woman, where there are more deaths than births.
At the same time the proportion of the retired population has continued to swell thanks to better healthcare.
Speaking at the launch of his new book, Timebomb: When Ageing Explodes, Merritt criticized national governments and the European Commission for “doing remarkably little” to address the issue.
“By mid-century, half of all Europeans will be over 65, and by 2100 almost two-thirds. This shrinkage of the EU’s productive workforce scarcely bears thinking about, and indeed that seems to have been the reaction of Europe’s political leaderships,” he said.
“Everybody knows Europe is ageing but people don’t care about it and assume it doesn’t really matter. It’s extraordinary that the EU executive commission has shown scant interest.”
Merritt warned that falling birthrates, allied with increasing numbers of retirees, mean that “young people will have to be taxed at levels we have never imposed before”.
He called for the rapid introduction of policies to soften the impact of demographic change and declining fertility rates.
“Care for the elderly is a disaster in all European countries. Care homes should be in the public sector and heavily subsidised,” he said. “We also need more and better housing. If you don’t have good housing for families, you won’t have children.
“Governments should subsidise the wages of young people who aren’t paid enough – and they need to get nasty about dealing with tax competition and tax dodging.”
Merritt opposes what he calls “the ever-higher walls of Fortress Europe”. Instead, he suggests governments should encourage positive recruitment of immigrants who, by entering the workforce, will contribute to the taxes that will make ageing more affordable.
'Short-term thinking' from governments
Another speaker at the launch, Birgit van Hout, Brussels director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), echoed Merritt’s concerns about “short-term thinking” by national governments in response to the demographic challenge.
“We need to increase employment levels among young people, women and minorities. Let’s stop saying ‘young people are the future’. They are the present,” she said.
UNFPA published its 2025 world population report this week – The Real Fertility Crisis – based on a survey of 14 countries, including Italy, Hungary, Germany, Sweden, the US and Nigeria. Some 39% of respondents reported that financial limitations had affected or would affect their ability to have the number of children they wanted.
Merritt, founder of the Friends of Europe think-tank and a former head of the Financial Times office in Brussels, said the response required to the tackle crisis, especially at European level, is now urgent.
“We can’t wait around for the usual EU process of watching paint dry. What’s needed from the Brussels executive is the same vigour and commitment it summoned 40 years ago to champion the Single Market in the teeth of opposition and obfuscation from some of the more protectionist member governments.”
