NATO's future in doubt after Trump does not commit to European defence

NATO's future in doubt after Trump does not commit to European defence
US President Donald Trump pictured at a head of states summit of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) military alliance, Wednesday 25 June 2025, in The Hague, The Netherlands. Credit: Belga / Eric Lalmand

US President Donald Trump shocked allies on the way to the NATO summit in The Hague on Tuesday night after he cast doubt on US military commitments to European defence in case of an external attack – a central principle of the alliance.

Arriving on Wednesday morning, the US leader avoided journalists at the summit, slipping away from the area where statements of ministers and heads of state are taken as they enter.

Trump would have been keen to duck questions about refusal to commit to whether the US would abide by the mutual defence guarantees, as outlined in Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

"Depends on your definition," Trump told reporters aboard his Air Force One plane. “There’s numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right? But I’m committed to being their friends.”

The US President later said that he is “committed to saving lives” and “committed to life and safety” but did not expand further.

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at NATO s summit, Wednesday 25 June 2025, in The Hague, The Netherlands. Credit: Belga / Eric Lalmand

To save his blushes, NATO head Mark Rutte insisted on Wednesday that the US was still committed to Article 5, saying that were “absolute clarity" about Trump’s position. Rutte will not want these comments to derail NATO countries' expected endorsement of a 5% of GDP defence commitment by 2035 at this week's summit, largely credited to the efforts of the US President.

"And yes, there's also an expectation which will be fulfilled today that the Canadians and the Europeans will speed up their spending, making sure that we not only are able, to defend ourselves against the Russians and others," Rutte continued, hailing the summit as "transformational".

'Pay in a BIG way'

The words came just a few hours after personal messages were exposed by Trump on the social media platform he owns, Truth Social. Rutte had commended Trump for his “extraordinary” military action on Iran, saying it made us “all safer”.

But his words about Trump’s efforts in pushing NATO allies to spend more on defence have exposed Rutte’s strategy of flattering and subservience to the US President.

"Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win,” wrote Rutte, adding that Trump had achieved what “NO American president in decades could get done”.

Many have criticised that these words have exposed European weakness on the global stage, while others have argued this is the only way to deal with the US President and his chaotic rule.

Whether this is another way of putting pressure on European allies or a genuine NATO withdrawal from Europe remains to be seen.

Yet Trump’s exertion of power over Europe is exposing some uncomfortable truths about transatlantic relations, despite Rutte’s effort to make the summit as Trump-friendly as possible.

This included helping Trump avoid journalists, as the hosts had arranged a covered passage intended for the American delegation, according to the Dutch media NOS.

Doorstep statement by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the start of the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague on 25 June 2025. Credit: NATO

The US President also paid a special tribute to the Dutch royal family, who had invited him  to spend the night at the palace and have breakfast with him, in an apparent charm offensive.

"The day begins in the beautiful Netherlands. The King and Queen are beautiful and spectacular people" the president said in a statement. "Our breakfast meeting was great ! Now we leave for a very important meeting of NATO. The United States will be well represented!"

Trump will also meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and hold talks with the Indo-Pacific allied countries. He will be hoping that European allies will agree to the 5% defence spending boost, even if there is some dissent in the ranks, led by Spain.

Belgian question

The Belgian Government has failed to reach an agreement on defence spending, meaning it intends to defend a position based on flexibility and save as much time as possible.

Prime Minister Bart De Wever has told reporters on Wednesday morning that he will pay attention to the Spanish position on defence spending on these grounds.

Belgium is one of the worst performers in the Alliance and will only reach the 2% of GDP threshold for defence this year, more than ten years after an agreement was reached by the allies.

Prime Minister Bart De Wever and Defence Minister Theo Francken pictured at a NATO summit in The Hague on 24 June 2025. Credit: Belga /Eric Lalmand

Despite everything, De Wever reiterated Belgium's willingness to move forward, even if the political agreement reached yesterday falls short of the wishes of the majority of Alliance countries.

On Tuesday, an agreement was reached on a strategic vision for Belgian defence based on 2% of GDP being spent on defence until 2033 and 2.5% in 2034. However, Trump is pushing for 5% of GDP by 2035.

This morning, De Wever also met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, on how to work together to enhance Euro-Atlantic security and promote bilateral relations. It comes after Belgium signed a deal with NATO concerning essential raw materials for weaponry and munitions.

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