Europe’s security landscape has shifted dramatically over the past two decades, yet while most of its neighbours have gradually adapted to the wake-up calls, Belgium remains locked in a slumber — always reaching for the snooze button.
In hindsight, the early warnings were unmistakable. One of the first came in February 2007, when Russian President Vladimir Putin used his now-famous Munich Security Conference speech to lambast the unipolar world order and NATO’s eastward enlargement – or “expansion”.
A year later, Russia launched a military assault on Georgia — its first act of cross-border aggression in the 21st century. Yet Belgium and much of the West remained preoccupied with the financial crisis and the ongoing global war on terror.
The next wake-up call came in 2014. Following Ukraine’s pro-European Maidan Revolution, Russia responded by illegally annexing Crimea and funnelling weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine. Even then, it failed to prompt serious Belgian reflection.
When Donald Trump first entered the White House in 2017, he made it abundantly clear: Europe had to do more. NATO’s burden-sharing was no longer optional. Belgium responded with modest gestures.
Prime Minister Charles Michel’s first government, from 2014–2018, laid out a ‘Strategic Vision’ and committed to upgrade some air, land, and maritime capabilities. But there was little sense of urgency — and no serious attempt to meet the NATO benchmark of 2% of GDP on defence.
That complacency shattered in February 2022. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine forced even the most sceptical to confront a new era of collective defence.
Belgium launched the STAR plan, under the Alexander De Croo government, which set modest increases in personnel and capability investment, alongside a limited rise in spending — to just 1.3% of GDP.
Mounting pressure
This year saw another wake-up call: Trump’s return to the White House. Once again, he pressed European allies to boost their defence spending. His demand? That NATO allies raise their defence budgets to 5% of GDP.
Belgium’s Arizona coalition under Prime Minister Bart De Wever initially aimed for 2% by 2029 and 2.5% by 2034. But the rapidly changing geopolitical climate, both within Europe and across the Atlantic, renders those timelines obsolete. In April, the government pledged to hit 2% this year — but without securing long-term structural funding.
Meanwhile, the pressure has been mounting. On May 9, following a meeting with Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken, US Under Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby publicly called on Belgium to step up.
“As a founding member of NATO, host of NATO headquarters, and one of Europe’s wealthiest societies, we look to Belgium as an example for our European allies by increasing its defence spending to 5%,” Colby said.
Germany, a key European ally and neighbour, already signalled its willingness to increase their budget towards 5% of GDP. In Belgium, however, political fault lines are emerging.
The Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V), a coalition partner, insist that 2% must remain the ceiling.
Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot, from the Francophone centrist party Les Engagés, is hoping to soften both the target and the timeframe following the June 24-25 NATO summit in The Hague.
Realism must prevail. Belgium cannot keep lagging behind. With the global order in flux, a defence budget of 3% or more is no longer an abstract ambition. It is a strategic imperative to address legacy shortfalls, meet NATO’s capability targets and preserve Belgian influence.
