Job creation in Belgium was positive in 2024 and unemployment rates were relatively low, the Higher Employment Council, CSE, notes in a report presented on Friday in Brussels.
This was achieved despite challenges from federal reforms and deteriorating international conditions, including US tariffs and the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to the CSE, which warns, however, of increasing uncertainty in the next few years.
The report's authors predict that domestic employment could increase by 20,000 to 30,000 jobs in 2025 and by 36,000 to 45,000 positions in 2026 and 2027. These forecasts hinge on successful federal reforms and shifts in the global landscape.
Economic indicators beginning to dim
“These figures for 2025 are well below the historical average,” notes the CSE. “For 2026 and 2027, we are closer to historical norms. Reforms have been considered, but tangible results will take time.”
Nonetheless, economic indicators have begun to dim, with several private sectors, such as manufacturing and construction, now experiencing a decline in jobs. Last year, employment growth was driven mainly by the non-commercial sector.
Flexible work arrangements are increasingly prevalent. While they provide market flexibility, their quantitative contribution remains limited. Tensions in employment within key sectors are easing but are still higher than in other European nations.
With regard to unemployment, the number of beneficiaries has decreased recently, maintaining a stable unemployment rate. However, the number of job seekers registered with Public Employment Services has increased markedly, partly due to reforms broadening eligibility for registration. “This paradox […] reflects a transformation in the labour market more inclined towards monitoring and activation,” the report explains.
Regional differences
Regional disparities persist, and there are still structural differences between worker categories. “While employment rates are improving, progress is moderate, and gaps between groups remain significant," the report's authors found. " The employment rate for those aged 55 and over is perhaps the exception, since, unlike other categories, the gap with the average is narrowing as a result of reforms limiting early exit from the labour market."
"We must view this report in the context of the current international situation," Employment Minister David Clarinval (MR) commented. "I believe the government is willing to move forward with the reforms mentioned."
"The target [of achieving an employment rate of 80% of the working population by 2030] is ambitious, but I remain optimistic," he added, "and I believe that the reforms will all help us move towards the 80% we are hoping for."
Doubts about the 80% target
The CSE is “cautious” about this target. “The reforms are positive for employment but will take time to produce tangible effects. Caution is advised,” said Geoffrey Minne, one of the report’s authors.
However, added CSE President Steven Vanackere, “while we see caution, the direction is correct.”
The CSE outlines recommendations based on three essential areas to ensure federal reforms are effective while managing underlying risks.
Firstly, it emphasises the need to promote mobility, particularly through ongoing training. “Limited participation in ongoing training programmes is one of the major weaknesses of the Belgian labour market,” the study's authors note.
'Reforms must not lead people to fall off the radar'
Additionally, they recommend clarifying the federal reforms, and managing risks for vulnerable groups facing poverty or exclusion.
“Reforms must not lead people to fall off the radar,” Vanackere pointed out, stressing the importance of CPAS (social assistance) centres and pointing to the intense discussions within the government on providing them with adequate support. “The new burden they will face should not be underestimated,” he noted.
Finally, the CSE calls for strengthening the organisations directly or indirectly related to employment and enhancing their collaboration.
