Researchers in Belgium have developed a predictive tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing a rare and aggressive type of blood cancer linked to the HTLV-1 virus.
HTLV-1, a human T-cell lymphotropic virus, infects over 20 million people globally. While most carriers remain asymptomatic, a small proportion develop severe conditions such as adult T-cell leukaemia (ATL), often decades after the initial infection.
Until now, no reliable tool existed to predict this progression. The new biomarker enables earlier treatments and more targeted medical monitoring for HTLV-1 carriers at risk of developing ATL.
Dr Anne Van den Broeke, lead author of the study published in The Lancet, stated that the biomarker helps clinicians identify HTLV-1 carriers likely to develop aggressive ATL years—sometimes decades—before symptoms appear. Van den Broeke leads research in viral oncogenesis at the Jules Bordet Institute and the University of Liège’s GIGA Institute.
The researchers created a predictive tool named Viral Clonality Evenness (VCE) using advanced sequencing techniques. VCE measures how evenly the virus is distributed in a patient’s cells, providing crucial insight into the risk of cancerous transformation.
In addition to identifying high-risk individuals for preventative care, VCE can offer reassurance to around 80% of HTLV-1 carriers previously deemed at risk, confirming they are unlikely to develop the disease.

