Belgian foreign trade is deteriorating as the country's most recent trade figures are "a turning point towards more negative growth figures after a period of stabilisation," according to the National Bank of Belgium (NBB).
The average growth figures for the value of Belgian imports and exports during the last three months available (September 2025 to November 2025) were -5.6% and -5.7%, respectively. This intensified in November, with imports down 6.7% and exports 7.5%, according to the most recent NBB report.
"Trade with countries outside the EU has recently been performing relatively worse than trade with countries within the EU," the NBB report said. "We can speak of poor performance for Belgian foreign trade and even of a turning point towards more negative growth figures after a period of stabilisation."
The NBB attributes the weak performance mainly to the sharp fall in exports to the United States. Shipments to the US dropped by 22% compared with the same period in 2024.
Chemicals and metals
While Belgium still recorded a trade surplus of €1.3 billion with the US between September and November 2024, this has now turned into a deficit of €0.9 billion.
The sharp decline can largely be attributed to chemical products, according to the NBB. "In this sector, exports to the US fell by more than €600 million in the last three months compared to the same period a year earlier."
Metals are the second most important sector for which exports to the US are falling sharply.
Aerial view of the Port of Antwerp. Credit: Belga/Dirk Waem
The US dollar has fallen by 12% against the euro over the past year, and US President Donald Trump increased duties in 2025 for imports into his country.
However, the NBB warned that it is too early to draw firm conclusions, stressing that a more thorough analysis will have to determine to what extent this can explain the deterioration in exports to the US.
After all, exports of chemical products to other key markets – such as the UK, Italy and the Netherlands – are also falling. Meanwhile, Belgium has increased exports of other products, such as precious stones (diamonds) and mineral products, to the US.
Strong growth for gemstones
A sharp increase was also recorded in exports and, to a lesser extent, imports of precious stones. According to the NBB, this is partly due to a number of exceptional transactions involving particularly high-quality diamonds.
However, the report adds that it cannot be ruled out that there are also more structural causes underlying this, which are slowly reversing the decline of recent years.
Also noteworthy is the sharp decline in mineral products. This is almost entirely due to price falls compared to 2024. For example, Brent crude oil fell from around $80/barrel in 2024 to $70 or less in 2025, and the price of natural gas fell from around €12/GJ at the end of 2024 to €8.5/GJ at the end of 2025.
These price falls account for more than four-fifths of the change in value (the quantities have remained virtually stable).
